Ukrainian forces have been engaged in intense combat for months, slowly making progress along two major lines of attack. Although their advances have been limited to about 10-12 miles, this progress is significant as it forces Russia to redirect its forces from other areas. Military analysts believe that Moscow’s redeployment will weaken their defensive lines, creating opportunities for Ukraine to potentially achieve a decisive breakthrough. Ukrainian strategy has shifted from head-on assaults to a war of attrition, focusing on steady gains and conserving resources. In addition to ground battles, Ukraine continues to target Russian supply lines using missiles and drones.
Recent explosions near the Kerch Strait Bridge have raised tensions, with Russia claiming to have shot down Ukrainian missiles. Ukrainian forces are advancing south along two lines of attack, aiming for the cities of Berdiansk on the Sea of Azov and Melitopol near the coast. Their goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and cut off Russia’s supply routes to Crimea. However, analysts warn that Ukraine still faces numerous challenges, including limited ammunition and troop morale, as well as well-fortified Russian defenses.
Meanwhile, Russian forces are launching their own offensives in northeastern Ukraine. By drawing Ukrainian forces to defend in these areas, Russia aims to weaken Ukraine’s advances. Ukrainian forces are hoping that pressure along the front lines, coupled with deep strikes on command posts and supply lines, will overcome Russian defenses. However, experts acknowledge the elasticity of Russia’s defenses, which allow for counterattacks and absorption of Ukrainian blows.
The British military intelligence agency predicts that as Russia redirects forces to counter Ukraine’s advances, their defenses in the Kherson region may weaken. Ukrainian forces have recently launched an assault on Kozachi Laheri town, held by Russian forces, but it is unclear if they will maintain a lasting presence there. In one line of attack, Ukraine is making progress towards the coastal port of Berdiansk, consolidating gains around Staromaiorske and pushing towards Urozhaine. Progress in this direction puts pressure on Russian supply lines. Along the other line of attack towards Melitopol, Ukrainian forces are battling obstacles such as dense minefields but are making steady progress around the village of Robotyne.
Despite the challenges, Ukraine is gradually advancing and putting pressure on Russian defenses. Russian forces are calling for reinforcements to stop the Ukrainian advance. The dense minefields and continuous airstrikes slow down their progress.
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