The escalating political battle surrounding abortion is exacerbating challenges for the GOP in the nation’s largest and most economically prosperous metropolitan areas. Recent voting results in Ohio’s biggest counties overwhelmingly rejected a Republican-led ballot initiative aimed at increasing the threshold for passing future amendments to the state constitution, specifically to prevent the potential overturning of a six-week abortion ban imposed by Ohio Republicans in 2019.
This pattern of opposition to the ballot initiative in Ohio’s largest counties follows a similar trend in seven other states where voters were able to express their views on the legality of abortion through ballot initiatives. In each of these cases, the majority of voters in the states’ most populous areas supported legal abortion, highlighting the geographic, demographic, and economic divisions driving American politics. The Republican Party has consolidated its support in exurban, small-town, and rural communities, which tend to have predominantly white Christian populations and rely on traditional industries like manufacturing, energy, and agriculture. Democrats, on the other hand, are solidifying their advantage in large metropolitan areas that are more racially diverse, secular, and integrated into the modern information age economy.
Exclusive data provided by the nonpartisan think tank, Brookings Metro, reveals that the counties opposing abortion restrictions are the very same counties that drive most economic growth in their respective states. The data, obtained from the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis, shows that counties supporting abortion rights contribute a significant share to their state’s GDP, including more than four-fifths in Michigan, more than three-fourths in Kansas, exactly three-fourths in Ohio, and over three-fifths in Kentucky and Wisconsin.
This stark divide not only highlights the different political systems at play, but also two distinct economies within the same states. Abortion has become a powerful factor in electoral outcomes, as evidenced by the performance of Democrats in key swing states during the 2022 elections. Despite concerns over the state of the economy and President Joe Biden’s job performance, Democrats managed to win governor and U.S. Senate races in those states, thanks in part to fears of Republicans attempting to impose a national abortion ban.
When given the opportunity to directly voice their opinions, voters from communities of all sizes have demonstrated resistance to banning abortion. Data from The Washington Post shows that in 500 out of the 510 counties that voted on abortion rights since last year, the share of voters supporting abortion rights exceeded the share of votes garnered by President Biden (excluding Vermont). However, it is worth noting that smaller counties in these states tend to vote against legal abortion, including in Ohio’s rural counties where over three-fifths of voters backed the abortion restrictions.
Despite this resistance, opponents of the abortion restrictions prevailed in Ohio’s largest urban and suburban counties. The majority of voters in 14 out of the 17 counties that cast the most ballots rejected the ballot initiative, including all seven counties with the highest voter turnout. Even in large suburban counties that traditionally lean towards the GOP, significant majorities opposed the restrictions. This performance, particularly among independent and Republican-leaning women, signals a potential shift for the Democratic Party in Ohio and reflects the broader trend of Democrats gaining support in economically dynamic areas surrounding major cities.
The results seen in Ohio align with those observed in other states that have conducted elections directly impacting abortion rights since the Supreme Court’s ruling. Abortion-rights supporters carried the majority of votes in the most populous counties in Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, and California, while opposition to the anti-abortion measures prevailed in all three counties with the highest vote totals in Montana. Even in the Wisconsin state-supreme-court race, the Democratic candidate who emphasized her support for legal abortion won in seven of the top 10 highest-voting counties.
These outcomes underscore the “class inversion” occurring in American politics, where Democrats find success in economically vibrant areas near large cities, while Republicans rely on struggling communities resistant to cultural and demographic changes. While this realignment has benefited Republicans in some states, like Tennessee, Kentucky, and Arkansas, it has weakened their position in others, such as Colorado and Virginia.
Ohio’s political landscape has also experienced this reconfiguration, with the GOP making gains among blue-collar voters in counties along the state’s eastern border. However, the party’s stance on abortion has proven to be a significant challenge, as urban and suburban voters increasingly align with the Democratic Party on this issue. This trend may indicate a shift in support among previously unresponsive women voters, potentially impacting future electoral outcomes in Ohio and other states.
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