Standing in her doorway in the picturesque village of Barton-le-Clay in Mid Bedfordshire, Gill Merrick expresses her uncertainty about the upcoming election. She is concerned about the number of anti-Tory candidates and fears that the vote will be split. Liberal Democrat politicians who have come knocking at her door are met with her worries. Both the Lib Dems and Labour are confident that they can overturn the Conservatives’ 24,664 vote majority in this rural constituency, given the ruling party’s weak position in national polls.
If the Conservatives were to lose in this stronghold of true blue territory, it would be a clear indication of the UK electorate’s disapproval of the government under Rishi Sunak. The ruling party is also likely to face defeat in a by-election in Tamworth on the same date. However, the intense rivalry between the main opposition parties could lead to a split vote in Mid Beds on October 19, potentially giving Sunak a much-needed win as he tries to regain his footing ahead of the general election expected in 2024. All three parties will gather in British cities over the next few weeks for their annual party conferences, aiming to build momentum for the year of election campaigning.
For the Lib Dems, their annual conference in Bournemouth this weekend is an opportunity to show that they have a real chance of doubling their number of MPs to 30 next year, even though they only secured 13% of the vote in the constituency in 2019. They are eager to prove their strength in the rural Conservative heartlands around Bedfordshire, Cambridgeshire, and Hertfordshire. They have a history of winning by-elections from third place, as they did in North Shropshire in 2021. Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper, along with candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay, believes that a victory in Mid Beds would provide a significant boost. It would demonstrate their ability to win in classic Conservative areas and rural regions, which is a key part of their electoral strategy.
Labour, on the other hand, is equally determined to show that Sir Keir Starmer’s financially orthodox and socially traditional platform can lead them to victory in Conservative territory. Mid Bedfordshire has long been one of the Tories’ most secure seats, held since 1931 and most recently by Nadine Dorries. The by-election triggered by Dorries’ resignation has sparked bitter divisions between the main opposition parties. Labour has accused the Lib Dems of running a smear campaign against their candidate, Alistair Strathern, by falsely claiming that he does not live in the constituency.
Strathern himself, sitting on a bench near a primary school in the village of Stondon, describes the experience of receiving misleading leaflets through his letterbox for the past four months as “surreal.” He believes that the Conservative vote has collapsed in the region and predicts an incredibly close race between himself and the Conservative candidate on election day. Residents perceive Dorries, a loyal ally of former prime minister Boris Johnson, as someone who has not addressed local issues, from transportation services to NHS waiting times and limited police presence. The Conservatives’ record on mortgage rates has also fueled anger.
The latest poll of voting intentions in the constituency conducted by pollster Survation for campaign group Labour Together shows that less than half of those who voted Conservative in 2019 are likely to do so this time. Labour and the Tories are neck and neck at 29% of the vote, with the Lib Dems trailing behind at 22%. A resident named Richard Wilson in Flitwick, the largest town in the seat, plans to vote Labour, despite never having voted for the party before. He believes that change is the most important thing and sees Labour’s position in the polls as the best shot for that change to happen. He hopes it will give Westminster a wake-up call.
Conservative MPs in nearby seats describe the by-election as “a scrap.” They argue that the Tories have an advantage because of the fighting between Labour and the Lib Dems and the popularity of their candidate Festus Akinbusoye, who is police and crime commissioner for Bedfordshire. They also believe that the recent climate policy U-turns by Sunak, such as delaying the ban on the sale of new diesel and petrol cars, will play well in a constituency where over 90% of constituents own a car. The Lib Dems counter by claiming that it is unrealistic for this deeply conservative region to turn red and argue that Labour has reached its maximum level of support.
Regardless of the outcome, Gill Merrick hopes that the leaders of both the Labour and Lib Dem parties engage in sensible dialogue and come to an arrangement ahead of the election.
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