Initial reports indicate that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the ruthless leader of the Wagner Group, may have been killed. While concrete details are scarce, it is believed that his private plane either crashed or was shot down, leading many to interpret it as an assassination. It is plausible that Vladimir Putin took him out at 28,000 feet, considering Prigozhin’s familiarity with the dangers of high buildings.
Coup plotters rarely live to see old age, and Prigozhin sealed his fate when he launched a failed mutiny against Putin in June. This act of disloyalty made Putin appear weak, as he seemed forced to accommodate someone who directly challenged his authority, solely because Russia needed the Wagner Group for its war efforts in Ukraine.
Putin likely understood that allowing Prigozhin to live posed a risk of encouraging further threats from within. In an interview earlier this year, Putin emphasized the unforgivable nature of betrayal. It appears that Prigozhin’s demise took place in his private plane. The Kremlin could have staged a less conspicuous death to deceive outsiders about the cause, but dictators typically prefer to make their lethal actions known. When they employ deadly force against their enemies, they want everyone to be aware, serving as a warning to potential plotters. This is why Russia’s enemies abroad have been killed using controlled radioactive substances that trace back to the Kremlin. When sending a message, it is crucial to ensure that the sender is unmistakable.
If Prigozhin’s death is confirmed, it is likely part of Putin’s calculated strategy to reassert his strength. However, this demonstrates a common error made by dictators – confusing ruthless violence with true strength. Lasting power and strength come from resilient regimes, and Prigozhin’s apparent demise reveals a brittle dictatorship with growing cracks and divisions.
Today’s events will inevitably have unintended consequences as Putin falls deeper into what I refer to as “the dictator trap.” In authoritarian regimes, every action carries a trade-off, and attempts to consolidate power often undermine it in the long run. Displays of brutal strength in the short term ultimately lead to weakness. In the immediate future, loyalists will fear Putin more, fully aware of the ultimate price of betraying him. However, in the medium to long term, two new threats are likely to emerge.
First, senior loyalists within Russia’s regime will understandably question their own safety. When dictators begin targeting top-level insiders, even those who directly challenged their authority, intensified paranoia spreads. Given the numerous “mysterious” deaths over the past two decades of Putin’s reign, it is not surprising that those in his inner circle may contemplate a Russia without him, provided they can shape its future. Consequently, the removal of Prigozhin merely shifts and delays the threat, as every dictator eventually meets his end.
Second, the quality of Putin’s information pipeline is bound to deteriorate significantly. This could result in avoidable errors since he will not receive candid advice. After two decades of brutal rule, it is likely that Putin’s pipeline was already compromised, with honest advisers purged and sycophants promoted. Advisors often learn that survival under a ruthless autocrat requires becoming a “bobblehead” – someone who unquestioningly agrees with their superior. One of Putin’s major historical blunders was listening to such advisers when they assured him of a quick capture of Kyiv, a move that backfired disastrously.
However, when a dictator assassinates a senior official, the fear factor intensifies. Trusted advisers, who previously spoke cautiously but honestly, begin to withhold their true thoughts or provide overly optimistic assessments. This creates a vicious cycle of misinformation and poor decision-making, making catastrophic miscalculations increasingly likely. Ultimately, one of these missteps could trigger the downfall of the regime.
To clarify, this does not imply that Putin’s oppressive regime is in its death throes. However, once the long-term consequences of this apparent assassination are considered, the late Yevgeny Prigozhin may still have a lasting impact from beyond the grave.
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