Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, recently concluded her visit to China, marking the end of a three-month diplomatic campaign by the Biden administration aimed at improving relations with Beijing and preventing further deterioration in the bilateral relationship, which had raised concerns about the potential for conflict. President Biden believed that high-level dialogue could help manage the escalating rivalry between the two countries on issues such as trade, technology, and Taiwan. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken visited China in June, followed by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen and presidential climate envoy John Kerry in July.
Now, the question arises as to whether China will reciprocate by sending senior Chinese ministers to Washington. The United States has publicly invited China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, but there has been no response yet. The last senior Chinese official to visit Washington was China’s commerce minister, Wang Wentao, in late May.
China stands to benefit from dispatching officials to the United States. It would demonstrate to the world that China is making an effort to ease tensions with Washington, especially at a time when China needs to instill confidence in its fragile economy. A visit could also pave the way for a highly anticipated meeting between President Biden and China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, at a forum in San Francisco in November.
However, Beijing has not committed to any visits. This could be due to internal disarray following the sudden dismissal of former foreign minister Qin Gang in July, or it could be a tactic to show Mr. Xi’s dissatisfaction with what he perceives as US containment efforts. It could also mean that Beijing sees no benefit in traveling for talks, considering the Biden administration’s firm stance on its policies.
There are political risks associated with visits to the US, including potential criticism and protests. China places great importance on the optics of its official visits abroad. Since lifting travel restrictions due to COVID-19, Mr. Xi has only traveled to countries where he is assured a friendly welcome, such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, and most recently, South Africa. Top Chinese officials have also visited countries like Pakistan, Cambodia, Malaysia, and Singapore.
The Chinese foreign ministry has only stated that China and the United States are “in touch” regarding exchanges. The invitation for Wang Yi to visit Washington was crucial for the planning of a potential visit by Xi Jinping to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and a meeting with President Biden. However, it is uncertain whether China intends to schedule any visits to the US. Holding meetings exclusively in Beijing could give the Chinese government more control over the discussions and allow them to push back against the US on trade and investment restrictions.
China is especially concerned about the continued US support for Taiwan, as well as restrictions on access to advanced US chip technology and deepening security ties with Asian allies. The Biden administration’s recent summit with the leaders of Japan and South Korea has also irked China, as it perceives this as an attempt to divide Asia and create another Cold War.
China may also be withholding visits to express its unhappiness over the alleged barring of Hong Kong’s chief executive, John Lee, from the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. China has demanded that he be invited and that the US lift sanctions imposed on him for implementing a national security law in Hong Kong.
China has been skeptical of engaging in talks with the US in recent months, as it believes that engagement without action is meaningless. In her meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Gina Raimondo assured Beijing that the US does not want to sever trade ties but expressed concerns raised by American businesses about the risks of investing in China. Meanwhile, Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador in Beijing, stated that the visits by US officials provided an opportunity to convey direct and tough messages to Chinese leaders on issues critical to national security.
Despite these efforts, the two sides remain far apart on issues such as military-to-military communication, which has been frozen by Beijing since Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year. The success of US efforts should not be solely measured by reciprocal visits from China, but by whether these engagements effectively communicate hard truths while seeking paths to avoiding conflict. If Chinese leaders only feel comfortable discussing these matters within the confines of Communist Party property, it reflects more on them than on the White House.
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