A senior adviser to the president of the Central African Republic revealed on Friday that Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner paramilitary group, had recently visited the country before the plane he was supposedly traveling on crashed in Russia. Fidèle Gouandjika, the adviser to President Faustin-Archange Touadéra, disclosed that Prigozhin’s purpose was to rally his troops before heading to other parts of Africa. In recent years, President Touadéra has welcomed Wagner mercenaries to combat rebel groups in exchange for mining concessions. The presumed death of Mr. Prigozhin could have significant implications for African client states and warlords. Within a few years, they transformed a mercenary enterprise into one of Russia’s most formidable and well-known assets on the continent.
Wagner operatives have been essential in providing security to autocratic leaders and assisting under-equipped national armies in countries like the Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, and Sudan. They have also offered weapons, training, and support to warlords aiming to challenge fragile governments. This support has been reciprocated, with cash and mining concessions, including gold and diamond, flowing back to Wagner’s African clients. Wagner’s operations have expanded beyond the military realm, with involvement in various industries such as timber, beer and vodka, logistics, and entertainment.
Nevertheless, the future of this business empire has become uncertain with the presumed death of its most recognizable figure. Russian President Vladimir V. Putin described Prigozhin as a talented businessman who worked extensively in Africa, particularly in the oil, gas, precious metals, and stones sectors. The last known footage of Prigozhin suggests it was captured in Africa, potentially in Mali, where around 1,500 Wagner mercenaries are currently deployed. The Wagner group’s influence on the continent has become so significant that Russian flags, Wagner group logos, and posters of Prigozhin have appeared at protests in West and Central African cities. However, despite its prominence, the group has faced numerous allegations of human rights abuses, including executions, rape, and torture.
Since Prigozhin’s failed rebellion against the Russian military leadership two months ago, the Kremlin has attempted to reassure its African clients that it remains in control. According to John Lechner, an independent researcher specializing in the Wagner group, there will likely be little immediate change in the group’s activities in Africa as long as they continue to receive payment. However, with Prigozhin’s presumed death, the group may operate in a less charismatic manner.
In the long run, other private military companies with closer ties to the Russian government may seek to recruit Wagner mercenaries. Cameron Hudson, an Africa specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that the Wagner group is a valuable tool in Putin’s arsenal that he would not want to give up, even without Prigozhin’s leadership. Nonetheless, Russia may struggle to replace Prigozhin due to his charismatic personality and mythical appeal in many parts of Africa.
Despite the presumed death of Prigozhin, Fidèle Gouandjika, the Central African presidential adviser, still considers him a national hero who saved the country. In tribute to the Wagner group’s leader, Gouandjika posed wearing a Wagner T-shirt and expressed his grief. He affirmed that the partnership with Russia would continue, stating, “There will be another Prigozhin. We’re awaiting the next one.”
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