In just 18 months of conflict, the control of Ukrainian land has shifted unpredictably, with Russia initially seizing a large amount of territory before Ukraine launched dramatic counterattacks to retake chunks of land. Now, 10 weeks into their most ambitious counteroffensive, questions are arising about whether Ukraine can successfully break through the Russian lines, especially in light of heavy casualties and equipment losses. However, despite the challenges, Ukrainian forces along the 600-mile front are making progress, with commanders and veteran soldiers asserting that they are better prepared now than they were a year ago.
Colonel Dmytro Lysiuk, commander of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, stated in an interview that the Ukrainian forces have transitioned from conducting defensive operations to being capable of launching attacks. He also highlighted several positive developments, such as the improved training and equipment of their units due to the aid received from Western countries. The addition of longer-range Western artillery and cluster munitions from the United States has been particularly effective in destroying Russian troops, armor, and artillery systems.
Despite these advancements, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the war will likely continue for at least a couple more years, leading some commanders to accept the possibility of a permanent state of conflict. However, they remain optimistic about the capabilities and strategy of the Ukrainian armed forces. While the counteroffensive has not resulted in significant territorial gains thus far, it signifies a shift in perspective for Ukrainian fighters who have spent the past year defending and withstanding constant bombardment.
One of the key aspects that Ukrainian commanders have learned from previous counteroffensives is the importance of subterfuge and feints in General Valery Zaluzhny’s strategic plan. Ukraine was successful in surprising Russian forces with a sudden breach of their lines in the northeastern region of Kharkiv after focusing attention on a counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region. These victories have instilled confidence in the current counteroffensive, even when Ukrainian troops face significant challenges.
Amidst ongoing fighting, Ukrainian commanders believe that Russian forces are in a poorer state compared to their Ukrainian counterparts. They credit American cluster munitions for wearing down Russian units, causing a decline in the functioning Russian artillery. Ukrainian commanders also note that their leaders prioritize the safety and lives of their soldiers more than the Russian command.
At this stage, the duration of the conflict and the ability of both sides to sustain losses will be crucial in determining the future course of the war. Ukraine remains determined to fight to protect their country, regardless of how long it takes.
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