In a bold move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping has shown his unwavering support for Russian strongman Vladimir Putin, emphasizing his commitment to challenging Western power. The recent events in Russia, which saw a rebellion against Putin’s regime, highlight the risks Xi has taken by aligning himself with Moscow. Despite the potential ramifications of this alliance, Xi sees Putin as a crucial partner in his mission to reshape the global order in China’s favor and counter American influence.
Xi’s decision to stand by Putin during his incursion into Ukraine last year was a calculated move to strengthen ties with Russia at the expense of Europe. This move not only galvanized democracies against China but also demonstrated Xi’s determination to bring about significant change. However, recent developments in Russia may make Xi question the viability of his alliance. Putin’s domestic problems and the weakened state of the Russian military, exposed by the conflict in Ukraine, could limit his ability to exert influence globally.
Despite these concerns, Xi has remained firm in his support for Putin. The ongoing war and the reaction of the West have not swayed him from deepening their ties. If anything, Xi may now see Putin as even more essential in preventing a destabilized Russia on China’s northern border. China’s Foreign Ministry has expressed support for Russia’s stability, emphasizing the countries’ strategic partnership. China’s state-run media outlets have also dismissed suggestions of Putin’s weakness as wishful thinking on the part of the West.
In fact, Xi stands to benefit from Putin’s isolation, as it gives China increased leverage over Russia. With limited options in the West, Putin has little choice but to rely on China for diplomatic support, trade, and even currency. This arrangement aligns with Xi’s goals, allowing him to exert influence over Russia’s economy and policies. This influence could secure energy and raw materials for China while protecting them from interference by the United States. Xi’s continued support for Putin will indicate that his desire to undermine Western power takes precedence over repairing relations with the West.
The trajectory of China’s foreign policy hinges on Xi’s next moves regarding Russia. If he continues to stand by Putin, it will demonstrate that his goal of weakening the West remains at the forefront of his approach to the world, even at the risk of damaging relations with countries that could support China’s economic development. However, if Xi wants to repair relations with Europe and attract Western investment and technology, he will need to reconsider his alliance with Putin. Last week, China’s Premier toured Europe with the intent of fostering engagement, but the European Commission responded by releasing an economic-security strategy focused on protecting Europe’s interests from China’s threats.
Xi’s unprecedented emphasis on partnering with Russia reveals a significant shift in China’s priorities. Previously, development and ties with the wealthier West took precedence, but now Xi is prioritizing security. Despite little evidence to support the notion, he believes Putin can provide the security China needs. This choice carries significant risks for China’s future. However, the one-man dictatorship that China has become under Xi ensures that the country will stay the course he sets, regardless of potential rebellions or disastrous wars.
Xi can learn valuable lessons from Putin’s recent troubles. The rebellion in Russia exemplifies the strain an unpopular war can place on an authoritarian regime. If Xi pays attention, he may recognize the potential domestic political vulnerabilities that come with a military conflict, such as a Taiwan invasion. A war for Taiwan, similar to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, could result in failure, prolongation, and rebellion, making it yet another risky gamble for Xi.
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