Samuel Huntington’s analysis of Ukraine and its relationship with Russia in his 1993 article, “The Clash of Civilizations?” published in Foreign Affairs, was indeed insightful. However, it is important to note that his predictions were not without their critics. Some argued that using the concept of civilization itself was unscientific and potentially racist. Others highlighted Huntington’s assertion that violence between Ukrainians and Russians would be unlikely due to their historical ties, only to be proven wrong with the current conflict.
At the time Huntington wrote his article, the world was experiencing a shift in global dynamics. The Cold War had ended, and the United States had successfully expelled Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. This gave rise to a sense of optimism, with President George H.W. Bush even referring to it as a “new world order” and “the end of history.” However, Huntington recognized that perpetual peace was not yet attainable, and that foreign policy would continue to be shaped by deep-rooted cultural and religious differences.
The events of 9/11 further confirmed Huntington’s insights. The “War on Terror” became a battle between the West and the most extreme manifestation of another civilization. The Bataclan Theater in Paris and the London Underground became as much a part of this war as the caves of Tora Bora or the deserts of Iraq.
Ukraine’s current conflict with Russia, which began in February 2022, highlights the importance of Huntington’s analysis. He identified Ukraine as a country situated on a fault line between the West and what he referred to as Orthodox civilization. Despite the historical ties between Ukraine and Russia, Huntington did not anticipate the rise of a leader like Putin. However, it is worth noting that American leaders, including Bush, had concerns about the breakup of the Soviet Union and warned against immediate independence for Ukraine.
Despite the tensions between Ukraine and Russia over the past quarter century, a full-scale war did not erupt until recently. This is a testament to the resilience and restraint displayed by both sides. However, Huntington was not naive about the direction Russia might ultimately take. He recognized that Russia was a “torn country,” forced to choose between embracing Western values or aligning itself with a distinct Slavic-Orthodox civilization. The collapse of the USSR brought this question to the forefront once again.
In the three decades since Huntington’s article, more torn countries have made their choices. Ukraine, torn between Western and Orthodox civilization, chose the West, and this decision was met with aggression from Putin’s Russia. Russia itself, after siding with Serbia in the Balkan conflicts of the 1990s, turned away from the West when NATO intervened in support of Muslims in Bosnia and Kosovo.
Other nations have also made civilizational choices. Turkey, under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, remains a NATO member but has shifted towards a stronger commitment to Islam, rejecting the Westernizing secularism of Kemal Ataturk. Likewise, India has been moving away from the Western model of non-sectarian liberal democracy and embracing its Hindu civilizational roots.
In contrast to Francis Fukuyama’s optimistic belief that liberal democracy would inevitably spread, Huntington’s analysis has proven to be more accurate. The War on Terror has tragically confirmed this reality. The United States spent two decades trying to establish liberalism and democracy in Afghanistan, only for the Taliban to regain power as soon as American forces withdrew.
The current situation in Ukraine demonstrates the importance of recognizing and respecting a country’s civilizational choice. The task now is not to change the course of Ukraine’s civilization, but to secure and support a country that has already chosen the West. Putin’s attempts to exert control over Ukraine may result in brutality, but he cannot overcome its deeply ingrained ties to the West.
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