Following the decisive defeat of a ballot initiative in Ohio that was widely seen as a proxy for abortion, attention is now focused on the upcoming abortion-rights ballot measure in November.
Supporters of the abortion-rights amendment are confident in their prospects, but they also recognize the challenges ahead. A proxy fight does not equate to the actual issue.
“While I wish we could refer to it as an absolute proxy, I believe this is an encouraging and positive sign for those following the November race,” stated Kelly Hall, executive director of the progressive ballot measure group, Fairness Project.
Ohio stands as the sole state voting on abortion this autumn, making it the current epicenter of the fight for reproductive rights.
The unofficial results from Tuesday revealed that 57 percent of voters rejected Issue 1, a resounding defeat. Even in many solidly conservative counties, “no” votes outnumbered President Trump’s performance in 2020.
The measure would have altered the threshold for future ballot measures, requiring 60 percent of voters to pass new amendments instead of a simple majority. It would have also affected the signature gathering process.
Although Issue 1 did not mention abortion in its text, it was primarily aimed at undercutting the November abortion-rights ballot measure. Since its defeat, constitutional amendments in Ohio will continue to require only a simple majority to pass.
“Ohioans have rejected an outrageous attempt by extremists to suppress our voices and involve the government in our most personal medical decisions,” said Lauren Beene, co-founder of Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights.
“Today, we begin the battle to safeguard our constitutional rights and reject government interference in November.”
Efforts to make it more challenging to pass ballot initiatives have proven unpopular in the past, and abortion-rights groups must now differentiate their abortion messaging from protecting the power of voters.
In addition to Ohio, legislatures in North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, Arizona, Missouri, Florida, and Arkansas have all discussed measures to impede or limit citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives. Only Arizona succeeded in raising the threshold, and that was specifically for ballot measures that increase taxes.
Every state that included abortion on the ballot in 2022 voted in favor of protecting access to the procedure in some manner, even including Republican-leaning states like Kentucky and Kansas.
Opinion polls in Ohio indicate that support for the abortion ballot measure crosses party lines, but crafting the right messaging may be crucial in a state that has become increasingly conservative.
Anti-abortion groups argue that the amendment would enable unrestricted abortions, including for minors without parental consent.
A July poll conducted by the USA TODAY Network Ohio/Suffolk University showed that nearly 58 percent of Ohio voters would support the abortion-rights amendment, including 81 percent of Democrats and 32 percent of Republicans.
A Scripps News/YouGov survey conducted in June found that 42 percent of Ohioans agreed with abortion restrictions to some extent, compared to 36 percent who disagreed.
Initially, supporters of Issue 1 denied that it targeted abortion and many advertisements framed it as a “parents’ rights” issue against gender-affirming care for children.
They also argued that it aimed to protect Ohio’s laws from the influence of wealthy out-of-state interest groups, even though much of the funding for the pro-Issue 1 campaign came from an Illinois-based Republican mega-donor.
However, with Issue 1 defeated, anti-abortion groups are now prepared to dedicate more time and financial resources to directly opposing the November amendment.
“This outcome will not deter us from continuing to combat the ACLU’s extreme agenda this November, which seeks to allow abortion up until birth and strip parents of their right to protect their child from pressure to undergo an abortion or even a sex-change operation,” vowed Peter Range, CEO of Ohio Right to Life.
Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, one of the country’s leading anti-abortion groups, criticized conservatives who stood on the sidelines or ignored the fact that the vote was about abortion.
“As long as Republicans and their supporters adopt the ostrich strategy and bury their heads in the sand, they will continue to lose,” the group said in a statement.
Simultaneously, supporters of the abortion amendment are ramping up their efforts.
“The spotlight has been on Issue 1 for the past two months. Now, there will be an immediate shift to the reproductive freedom amendment in the upcoming election,” explained Jeff Rusnak, a strategist for Ohio Physicians for Reproductive Rights.
“I believe that shining a light on this issue is necessary. Voters are fully engaged in this matter.”
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