“The Fourth Turning” Takes Center Stage in Pop Culture

Fans of the hit Netflix series “The Watcher” may have noticed a clever reference in one of the episodes. In a scene where a character encounters a mysterious man in his kitchen, the man mentions something called the “fourth turning” in response to a comment about people leaving New York City.

So, what exactly is the fourth turning? According to proponents of this theory, American history goes through recurring cycles, each lasting about 80 to 100 years. These cycles, known as “turnings,” consist of four generational seasons. The winter season, or the fourth turning, is a time of upheaval and reconstruction.

This theory was first introduced in the book “The Fourth Turning,” published in 1997. While it gained a cult following, it has recently gained more mainstream attention amid political turmoil. The book argues that previous fourth turnings in American history include the American Revolution, the Civil War, and World War II. According to the theory, America entered its latest fourth turning in the mid-2000s, and we are currently experiencing the culmination of this turning in the 2020s.

The fourth turning theory has attracted interest from people across the political spectrum and has even inspired an Off-Broadway play called “Heroes of the Fourth Turning.” The theory’s outlook on the future has also made it appealing to macro traders and crypto enthusiasts, who see it as a useful framework for understanding economic trends.

While some see the theory as an intriguing way to make sense of history, others find it menacing. Playwright Will Arbery, who researched the theory for one of his works, compared it to the way young liberals talk about astrology, acknowledging its appeal while also recognizing a sense of unease.

The authors of “The Fourth Turning” have faced criticism for what some consider cherry-picking facts and promoting pseudoscience. However, events such as the 2008 financial crisis, the pandemic, and the storming of the Capitol have made some question whether there is validity to their ideas.

Despite the controversy, the popularity of “The Fourth Turning” continues to grow, especially during times of crisis. Like a staple business thriving in an economic downturn, the worse the news gets, the more attention the theory receives.

Neil Howe, one of the book’s authors, believes we are in the midst of a fourth turning crisis that could potentially lead to a civil war or geopolitical conflict. However, he also maintains an optimistic outlook, as he believes each fourth turning sparks a renaissance in civic life.

In his new book, Howe explores what such conflicts might look like, although he refrains from making specific predictions. Instead, he encourages people to stay vigilant and watch for signs of change during this pivotal time.