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In the face of the most serious threat to his authority in twenty years, Vladimir Putin has emerged victorious as Russia’s paramount leader. However, the failed rebellion orchestrated by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner paramilitaries has exposed the foolishness of Putin’s war against his neighbor. Russia finds itself entangled in a conflict that it cannot win, a conflict that has severely impacted its economic prospects, alienated it from western nations, and brought armed insurgents within driving distance of Moscow. The exact details surrounding the mutiny and the subsequent “deal” remain unclear, but one cannot ignore the fact that Putin’s position has been weakened.
Right from the start, the war against Ukraine was a miscalculated and hubristic endeavor. Putin’s neo-imperialist venture overestimated the capabilities of the Russian army while underestimating the determination of Kyiv’s forces to defend their homeland and the willingness of international democracies to economically penalize Russia and provide military aid to Ukraine.
Furthermore, Putin exacerbated his mistake by outsourcing a part of the war to a private army led by a former convict. When tensions escalated between Wagner’s thuggish warlord and the state military, Putin bore the brunt of the repercussions.
In Russia, there exists a far-fetched conspiracy theory suggesting that the events of the weekend served as a theatrical performance designed to showcase Putin’s power and entice other potential competitors to reveal themselves. However, it appears more likely that the president was openly confronted by a former ally. In an uncomfortable television address, he alluded to being stabbed in the back and drew parallels to the collapse of the tsarist empire in 1917. Prigozhin was eventually persuaded to leave Russia for Belarus, possibly through intimidation or bribery. Notably, this required intervention from Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, whom Putin has previously held in contempt.
Prigozhin’s mutiny shattered the taboo against challenging Russia’s mafia-style leader and exposed the vulnerability beneath Putin’s facade of invincibility. Instead of relying solely on fear and eliminating any potential opposition within Moscow’s elite, Putin had positioned himself as the ultimate arbiter between factions, the one person capable of maintaining stability while retaining the support of the Russian people.
Moreover, in a recent video rant, Prigozhin, who was previously regarded as a nationalist hero, debunked the entire Kremlin narrative behind the war in Ukraine. He stated that Russia faced no immediate threat from Ukraine when Putin initiated the invasion last year and that ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine were now being killed or displaced by Russian forces.
Kyiv claims that there have been few signs of disruption within Moscow’s invading army over the weekend. However, the loss of Wagner as a brutal fighting force, without the tyrannical Prigozhin to rally them, and with their forces scattered or absorbed into the regular military, may sap Russia’s military efforts. The domestic instability could potentially weaken their resolve and create opportunities for Ukraine’s counter-offensive.
Putin’s response might involve resorting to the terror tactics that have traditionally been employed by Soviet and Russian leaders throughout history. This could entail further cracking down on independent media and banishing prominent figures in the opposition to the modern-day equivalent of the gulag. Additionally, the recent unrest serves as a reminder that if Putin is ever overthrown, it could potentially be by more hardline elements determined to pursue the war in Ukraine with even greater brutality. Nevertheless, for now, the president, who was once seen as the leader who steered Russia clear of the chaos following the Soviet era, is experiencing the consequences of his own disastrous misjudgments.
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