Rising Rates of COVID-19: What You Need to Know
COVID-19 rates are on the rise as the summer comes to an end, raising concerns about the upcoming fall season. With new variants emerging, hospitalizations and deaths are increasing by double-digit percentages, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). While the rates have not reached the levels seen during the peak of the pandemic, the combination of seasonal changes, cooler temperatures, and the return of children to schools may worsen the current situation. Here is a closer look at the current state of COVID-19.
Hospitalizations and Deaths Rising
Recent CDC data shows a 16 percent increase in COVID-related hospitalizations from mid to late August. This upward trend began in July after record-low hospitalization rates earlier in the summer. Experts believe that the actual number of cases could be higher, as many cases go unreported and data collection methods have changed. Andrew Pekosz, a professor of immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, explains, “It’s difficult to put those hospitalization and death numbers in context. Are we seeing a 10 percent increase in hospitalizations but a 100 percent increase in cases? That’s where it becomes really sort of difficult to make those population estimates.” Despite this uncertainty, Pekosz suggests that the numbers are higher than they appear.
The number of COVID-related deaths has also increased by about 18 percent in the same period of August, according to CDC data. In August, over half of the country experienced “substantial” increases in COVID-19 cases, with 26 states seeing hospitalizations rise by more than 20 percent.
“I think there is something to be said about rising [COVID] rates. I think it’s also important to note that there are other things that cause respiratory infections that go around,” Pekosz explains. “That’s where the testing becomes so important because it really allows you to cut through and understand what COVID is contributing to this, versus what are other infections that are normally starting to rise around this time of the year contributing to overall health.”
Vaccine Booster and New Variant
The leading COVID vaccine manufacturers, Moderna, Pfizer, and Novavax, are preparing to release another vaccine in the coming weeks. The new vaccine is designed to target the XBB.1.5 variant of COVID, a subvariant derived from the Omicron variant that caused a surge in cases last year. The CDC already recommends that everyone receive an updated COVID-19 vaccine, in addition to the 2021 shots. Individuals above the age of 65 are also advised to get a booster shot. Andrew Pekosz recommends getting the new COVID vaccine once it becomes available.
According to CDC data, less than half of the country has received the updated COVID vaccines, and even fewer have received the necessary additional shots. Southern states have lower rates of updated vaccinations, with Texas having the lowest rate of fully vaccinated individuals at 3.3 percent.
The new vaccine from Moderna is said to be effective against the emerging B.2.86 variant, unofficially named “Pirola.” This variant has over 30 mutations from previous versions of the virus and is believed to be more infectious among individuals who have had COVID before.
Potential Return of Mask Mandates
The increase in COVID cases has sparked a renewed debate about the effectiveness of wearing masks. While there are no government mask mandates currently in place, former White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci suggests that recommendations to wear masks in public could be reinstated if the situation worsens. Pekosz agrees, stating that certain places such as nursing homes and hospitals may reintroduce mask requirements.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul has announced that free masks and COVID-19 tests will be provided to students as the school year begins. The White House has also stated that President Biden will increase his mask-wearing after First Lady Jill Biden tested positive for COVID-19.
Other Protective Measures to Follow
Experts emphasize the importance of following common precautions that have been in place since the start of the pandemic. These include proper handwashing, wearing masks, and avoiding crowded areas. While there are free test programs that have concluded, individuals can purchase at-home COVID tests from local pharmacies for approximately $20. It is crucial to ensure that the tests are not expired.
Lastly, it is recommended to stay home if experiencing any respiratory sickness, whether COVID-related or not, in order to protect the community.
Possible Future Waves
While another wave of COVID cases is a possibility, experts believe it is unlikely to reach the scale of the Omicron wave seen last year. Andrew Pekosz explains, “We have to understand that COVID is here, and COVID is staying here. I expect that we’ll see increases in cases. But I don’t expect to see something that was similar to what we saw across the population where we saw massive increases of cases over a short period of time.”
Pekosz does acknowledge that there is a rising risk as summer ends and indoor gatherings become more common. “It’s important to note that we’re starting with a baseline of cases that’s pretty high, and now we’re seeing a surge in the fall and people are getting into environments where the virus is much more transmissible,” he warns.
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