Updated at 3:12 p.m. ET on October 7, 2023
What a difference a week makes.
Just eight days ago, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, speaking at The Atlantic Festival, recited a long list of positive developments in the Middle East. These developments allowed the Biden administration to shift its focus to other regions and problems. Sullivan highlighted a truce in Yemen, the end of Iranian attacks against US forces, and a stable American presence in Iraq. He declared, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”
However, within a week, the Middle East has become a chaotic maelstrom due to a shocking and coordinated attack by Iranian-supported Hamas against Israel. This attack, reminiscent of the Yom Kippur War, could be as significant as 9/11. Over 100 Israelis have tragically lost their lives, and many more have been gravely injured. Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel by land, sea, and air, resulting in numerous potential hostage situations in Gaza. Israeli reprisal raids have caused almost 200 deaths. With Israel activating tens of thousands of reservists, a full-scale ground invasion of Gaza is a real possibility.
This situation reveals not only failures of intelligence but also failures of imagination. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Biden administration had been invested in a developing agreement to establish relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. However, this hope may have blinded them to the escalating situation in Gaza. Yaakov Katz, former editor in chief of The Jerusalem Post, pointed out that there was a perception that Iranian disruptive options were limited. But events have proven otherwise.
The attack by Hamas serves Iran’s desire to prevent closer ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The ongoing domestic unrest in Israel over a judicial overhaul sought by Netanyahu’s coalition has also added to the desire for distraction. For Biden, a peace agreement would have bolstered his foreign-policy record and overshadowed the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. Thus, de-escalation and maintaining peace were the desired goals. However, these goals didn’t take into account Iran’s capabilities for sowing crises.
The potential change in Israel’s control over Gaza, which seems inevitable, will impact negotiations with Saudi Arabia. The Saudis require Israeli concessions in the Palestinian conflict to move forward. The current situation has thrown the conditions and contexts into uncertainty, creating a radical shift. The outcome of this crisis will determine the region’s prospects for the future.
At present, it seems that Iran is achieving its objectives at the expense of Gaza’s population. Israel is on the brink of a major campaign against Hamas in retaliation. More death and destruction are likely to follow. The Middle East remains a volatile and rapidly changing region, with Sullivan’s observation of a “quiet” period already a distant memory.
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