July 2023 is poised to break all previous heat records, according to UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Scientists predict that this month will be the hottest ever recorded worldwide, and the UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service agree, stating that it is “extremely likely” to happen.
Guterres confidently declared that July 2023 will break records across the board, unless there is a sudden cooldown comparable to a mini-Ice Age. He emphasized that climate change is a terrifying reality and that the era of global warming has arrived.
The effects of the scorching July heat are visible worldwide. Tourists on the Greek island of Rhodes have been forced to flee from wildfires, while people in the US Southwest are enduring intense heatwaves. In northwest China, temperatures reached a staggering 52.2°C (126°F), breaking the national record.
Although the WMO is waiting for finalized data in August before confirming the record, an analysis from Germany’s Leipzig University indicates that July 2023 will indeed clinch the top spot. The global mean temperature for this month is projected to be at least 0.2°C (0.4°F) hotter than July 2019, which was previously the hottest month on record. Karsten Haustein, a climate scientist from Leipzig, stated with certainty that July 2023 will be the warmest July ever.
It is estimated that July 2023 will be approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the pre-industrial mean. The WMO has already confirmed that the first three weeks of this July have been the warmest on record. Michael Mann, a climate scientist at the University of Pennsylvania, pointed out that this month’s extreme heat is a clear sign of ongoing global warming caused by burning fossil fuels.
Typically, global mean temperature in July hovers around 16°C (61°F), including the Southern Hemisphere winter. However, this year it has surged to around 17°C (63°F). Haustein mentioned that we may need to go back thousands or even tens of thousands of years to find similar heat conditions on Earth. Analyses based on preliminary data and weather models, validated by independent scientists, have concluded that this record-breaking July is statistically robust.
The unprecedented heat has affected various regions around the world. Death Valley in California experienced the hottest night ever recorded globally, while wildfires have spread rapidly through Canadian forests. Major heatwaves have struck France, Spain, Germany, and Poland, with temperatures soaring into the mid-40s Celsius on the Italian island of Sicily, parts of which are engulfed in flames. Marine heatwaves have also threatened coral reefs from Florida to Australia.
Even Antarctica, one of the coldest places on Earth, is experiencing the impact of rising temperatures. Sea ice in the Southern Hemisphere’s winter is currently at a record low, far below what is expected.
In addition to heat, record rainfall and floods have devastated South Korea, Japan, India, and Pakistan. Friederike Otto, a scientist from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change in London, explains that while the global mean temperature itself may not be directly lethal, it contributes to extreme weather events worldwide.
The planet is currently experiencing the early stages of an El Nino event, characterized by unusually warm waters in the eastern Pacific. El Nino typically leads to warmer temperatures globally, further intensifying the effects of human-caused climate change. Scientists predict that El Nino will peak later this year and into 2024, increasing temperatures further.
Although August is not expected to break this month’s record, scientists anticipate that either 2023 or 2024 will end up being the hottest year on record, surpassing 2016.
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