The armed rebellion led by Russian mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has had significant repercussions. Initially, Russian troops were deployed to protect the capital, but they have since withdrawn as the mercenary forces retreated from Moscow.
Prigozhin and his fighters took control of the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don, which oversees fighting in Ukraine, after calling for an armed rebellion to oust Russia’s defense minister. They proceeded towards Moscow with few obstructions, reportedly downing helicopters and a military communications plane. However, a deal was struck to send Prigozhin to neighboring Belarus, a country that supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In exchange, charges of mounting an armed rebellion against Prigozhin will be dropped, and he ordered his troops back to their field camps.
Prior to the arrival of the Wagner forces, Moscow had implemented checkpoints with armored vehicles and troops at the city’s southern edge. However, on Sunday, there was little indication of the counterterrorism alert that was initially in place. The downtown area of the Russian capital was bustling with crowds enjoying the sunny weather, and roadblocks and checkpoints were removed.
Prigozhin’s exile, while ending the revolt, raises questions about President Putin’s power. Additionally, the deal to take him in has placed him in a more repressive nation like Belarus. It is worth noting that Prigozhin has long-standing ties to Putin.
Amidst the aftermath, a top Russian diplomat visited Beijing to hold talks with the Chinese government. Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko met with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang to discuss international and regional issues. China has not officially commented on the crisis in Russia, maintaining close ties with Russia throughout the invasion of Ukraine.
Although the deal between Prigozhin and the Kremlin has been portrayed on state-controlled television as a display of Putin’s wisdom, many questions remain unanswered. It is unclear whether any of Prigozhin’s troops will join him in exile and what role he may play in Belarus.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in the US, suggests that the Kremlin now faces a fragile equilibrium after the deal to end Prigozhin’s rebellion. The involvement of Belarus’ President Alexander Lukashenko in halting a military advance on Moscow has been deemed “humiliating” for Putin. The institute emphasizes that the deal is a temporary fix and exposes weaknesses in the Kremlin and the Russian Defense Ministry. Prigozhin’s rebellion also highlights a surprise on the part of the FSB, Russia’s domestic intelligence service. The institute highlights that Prigozhin consistently escalated his rhetoric against the Russian Defense Ministry before the revolt, and Putin failed to address this risk.
In conclusion, the armed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin has had significant consequences and repercussions for Russia. The aftermath raises questions about Putin’s power, and the deal that led to Prigozhin’s exile has placed him in a more repressive nation. Both Russia and China continue to maintain close ties amidst the crisis, while the long-term stability of the Kremlin is brought into question.
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