Artillery from the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade.
53rd Mechanized Brigade photo
Following the loss of hundreds of armored vehicles in direct assaults on Ukrainian positions in and around Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region, the Russian armed forces are now shifting to dismounted infantry assaults.
Tactically speaking, this move is not entirely unwise. Ukrainian brigades transitioned from mounted to dismounted assaults during their summer counteroffensive in southern Ukraine and gained significant ground along important axes.
However, dismounted infantry assaults can be risky, especially against a dug-in enemy and in wet, cold weather without adequate air and artillery support for footbound soldiers.
Russian air force attacks on Avdiivka have included more cluster bombs and heavy glide-bombs, but the coordination with infantry has been unclear. This transition to dismounted assaults without proper support may result in increased infantry casualties for Russian forces.
The Russian objective is to capture Avdiivka, a key Ukrainian stronghold just miles from Donetsk city, the center of the Russian occupation in the eastern oblast.
Despite initial vehicleborne assaults, Russian brigades faced substantial losses from mines, artillery, and drones, prompting redirection of attacks to Avdiivka’s flanks.
In response, the Ukrainian general staff deployed mechanized and artillery brigades to support their defenses, disrupting the Russian assaults.
The flat terrain around Avdiivka offers little cover and Russian losses were significant during vehicleborne assaults. Ukrainian modern anti-armor weapons, mines, and precision artillery systems contributed to these losses.
Observing Ukrainian successes with dismounted infantry assaults, the Russians have reduced their vehicle deployments in favor of smaller tactical infantry groups.
However, these efforts have not been very successful, with significant Russian casualties reported in their attempts to advance on Avdiivka.
The U.K. Defense Ministry estimates several thousand Russian casualties in and around Avdiivka since the start of October 2023, emphasizing the heavy personnel losses for marginal territorial gains.
These shocking losses continue to mount, with thousands of casualties reported in a single ongoing attack on a single city.
Despite these casualties, Russia’s leadership remains willing to accept heavy losses for minimal territorial gains, a strategy that ultimately proved decisive in previous battles.
By expending combat power in certain areas, Russia has left other fronts vulnerable, allowing Ukrainian forces to exploit these weaknesses and make strategic gains. The Russian focus on Avdiivka has prevented them from reinforcing other critical areas.
