Within the past 24 hours, a series of events have unfolded in Russia that resemble the plot of a thrilling episode from a popular political drama series like “Madam Secretary” or “The West Wing.” Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious convicted criminal who leads the Wagner mercenary group, boldly declared war on the Russian Ministry of Defense and forcefully entered the city of Rostov-on-Don. From there, he marched towards Moscow, demanding the removal of Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. As tension built, the city braced itself for potential chaos.
Remarkably, Prigozhin and his men advanced to within 125 miles of the capital, which is closer than the distance between Philadelphia and Washington, D.C. However, Prigozhin suddenly announced that a deal had been struck, and Wagner’s forces were retreating to avoid bloodshed. Interestingly, it appears that Prigozhin saved himself from harm rather than others. If the Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov’s statements accurately reflect the outcome of this bizarre turn of events, Prigozhin has transformed from a powerful warlord to a man hiding in a foreign country, awaiting the inevitable retribution of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
According to Peskov, Russia has dropped all charges against Prigozhin, but he is required to exile himself in Belarus. Wagner fighters who did not participate in the rebellion will receive amnesty and then sign contracts that bring them under the control of the Ministry of Defense led by Shoigu. It was speculated earlier that Shoigu’s attempt to seize control of Wagner’s men and disband the group might have triggered Prigozhin’s march. Regardless, this outcome represents a significant defeat for Prigozhin, who has lost everything except his life.
The motivations behind Prigozhin’s coup and its swift failure are still subject to speculation. One possibility is that Prigozhin had allies in Moscow who promised support but ultimately abandoned him. Perhaps his friends in the Kremlin became hesitant or were fewer in number than Prigozhin anticipated, or maybe they never existed at all. It’s important to note that Prigozhin lacks military or diplomatic genius; he is a violent, arrogant, and impulsive individual who may have embarked on this scheme fueled by his own overconfidence.
Nevertheless, this bizarre episode does not favor Putin. The Russian leader has suffered visible damage to his reputation and now bears the lasting scar of political vulnerability. Instead of appearing as a decisive autocrat or a commanding mob boss, Putin left Moscow after a visibly angry video message, deviating from his usual self-assured demeanor. Reports suggest that Putin fears assassination, which may have motivated him to lay low until he had a clear understanding of who could be in cahoots with Prigozhin. Nevertheless, he has vowed to deal with Prigozhin decisively and retreated to Valdai, his retreat, following a seemingly weak and disorganized display.
Initially, Putin’s choice to involve President Alexander Lukashenko as a mediator appeared odd, but it makes more sense in light of the alleged deal. Lukashenko could guarantee Prigozhin’s safe passage, as he lacks connections in Moscow more influential than Putin. Being independent from the Kremlin, Lukashenko was a secure choice for executing Putin’s terms and owed his continued rule to Putin, eliminating any reason to betray him. Furthermore, involving Lukashenko asserted Putin’s power dynamic; being a former intelligence officer, negotiating directly with Prigozhin, a mere convict in Putin’s eyes, would have been an embarrassing loss of face.
Prigozhin may have temporarily escaped death, but his life as he knew it has come to an end. Meanwhile, Putin finds himself politically weaker than ever. The once untouchable leader now faces vulnerabilities and had to strike a deal with a convict, staining his image in the process. Notably, the negotiations took place to avoid the shock and embarrassment of an armed march into the Russian capital while other Russians fight on the front lines in Ukraine.
Prigozhin has dealt a blow and walked away from someone who never lets personal offenses go unanswered. However, Putin may have had no choice but to make deals due to the precarious nature of his situation. All available options were terrifying, as ordering the Russian military to attack armed Russian men posed significant risks, considering the potential support among officers and political elites. Killing Prigozhin directly was also high-risk, as it might have sparked the Wagnerites to fight to the death in retaliation.
This wound to Putin’s power runs deep, although its exact extent remains uncertain, particularly regarding Shoigu and Gerasimov’s positions. Despite the rebellion sidelining Wagner in Ukraine, Putin may attempt to overshadow this ignominious moment by escalating Russia’s brutality in the region. However, two things are evident: Putin has suffered a significant political blow and has survived by making humiliating deals with Prigozhin and his Kremlin colleagues. Additionally, Yevgeny Prigozhin has altered the political landscape surrounding Putin’s Ukrainian war.
The repercussions of Prigozhin’s rebellion will extend beyond today, but how long he will reside in Belarus or even survive in Belarus to witness the outcome remains uncertain.
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