Professor Robert Dingwall writes that although the Covid Inquiry may not acknowledge it, our pandemic plan was robust. However, he argues that the involvement of left-leaning scientists and overly anxious politicians led to a series of missteps.

In a surprising turn of events, the United Kingdom authorities implemented a pandemic response strategy that closely resembled Sweden’s approach for the first 48 hours of the Covid-19 outbreak in March 2020. This plan, which had been in development for two decades, aimed to provide the public with honest information and trust their responsible behavior, just as Sweden did. The UK would not have imposed lockdown measures, mandated mask-wearing, or enforced physical distancing. Schools and the economy would have remained open and functioning.

However, due to panicked politicians, the UK deviated from this well-researched plan and opted for more draconian measures that ultimately proved more destructive to the nation’s well-being. Professor Robert Dingwall highlights the disappointing decision to abandon the sensible approach taken by Sweden, which ultimately resulted in fewer deaths and less societal and economic damage.

Despite these facts, the initial stage of the Covid-19 Inquiry portrayed a different narrative. It suggested negligence on the part of the government and civil service, claiming that they failed to adequately prepare for the pandemic. This narrative ignores the scientific evidence, historical context, and truth of the matter.

As someone who was involved in the UK’s pandemic planning from 2005 to 2011, I can attest to the thoroughness and admiration of the official plan. We, the Committee on Ethical Aspects of Pandemic Influenza (CEAPI), examined various social aspects of pandemic planning and reviewed working papers from multiple government departments. Our diverse group, consisting of academics, journalists, patient advocates, and healthcare professionals, analyzed mathematical models and considered all perspectives.

Contrary to the alternative narrative presented by the inquiry, Britain’s pandemic plan was far from negligent. It was highly regarded across Europe and led by the government rather than the health ministry to balance public health with broader social and economic concerns.

The plan’s considerations included border closures, internal travel restrictions, and school closures. However, these measures were deemed unworkable or counterproductive. Closing borders would have led to food shortages, internal travel restrictions would have been impractical in a country with a dense road network, and school closures would have severely impacted the workforce. Our priority was to ensure children’s safety by keeping schools open with sufficient supervision.

Masks were not a topic of discussion, as previous evidence indicated their limited effectiveness during influenza pandemics. Their use in some Asian countries was influenced by urban pollution rather than infection control. Similarly, contact tracing beyond the initial stages of a pandemic was deemed unnecessary.

Closing establishments such as bars, clubs, cinemas, and theaters where people gather was unwarranted, as there was no evidence from previous pandemics to justify such measures. Instead, the British plan relied on a more cost-effective strategy of asking symptomatic individuals to stay at home.

It is important to note that all plans should be regularly reviewed in light of new evidence and risks. While Britain’s pandemic preparations were due for revision, the fundamental plan based on pandemic influenza was sound. As Professor Dame Jenny Harries emphasized, pandemic influenza is a novel virus similar to Covid-19 and has posed significant global threats in the past century.

Looking back, it is perplexing to see the disregard for extensive emergency planning work. Three main factors contributed to this oversight. Firstly, politicians underestimated their own courage and hesitated to communicate the harsh truth that significant loss of life was inevitable. Former Health Secretaries Jeremy Hunt and Matt Hancock’s assumptions that something could be done fueled their search for supporting advisors, disregarding their expertise.

Secondly, a large group of scientific and medical professionals seized the pandemic as an opportunity to criticize a Conservative government they disliked. Pressures on pay and working conditions exacerbated this response, revealing an elitist and paternalistic attitude within the biomedical science and public health fields.

Lastly, the crisis presented an opportunity to reshape society and individual interactions through the power of the state. This clash of values and desire for state intervention further complicated the decision-making process.

In conclusion, the initial plan devised by the UK authorities for managing the Covid-19 pandemic was well-researched and respected across Europe. However, a deviation from this plan led to more destructive measures, contrasting the success of Sweden’s approach. The ongoing inquiry must acknowledge the thoroughness of the original plan and consider the various factors that influenced its subsequent abandonment.

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