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The writer is a science commentator
After a quiet summer, the situation is becoming more tense. Global Covid-19 cases and hospitalizations are increasing, and national vaccination programs are commencing. New variants of the virus are emerging, catching us off guard.
Following an outbreak in a Norfolk care home last month, the UK’s planned rollout of the twin booster for Covid-19 and flu, originally scheduled for October, was accelerated by about three weeks. However, the updated Covid-19 vaccines will only be available through the NHS and will be limited to groups such as the clinically vulnerable and frontline care workers.
While it is unlikely that we will experience devastating waves of disease like the height of the pandemic, Britain may suffer the consequences of rising infections on its health and productivity. It remains unclear why Covid-19 vaccines are not accessible in the country to those willing to pay for them, including employers.
“I haven’t heard a good rationale why [the Covid-19 booster] is not being offered like the flu jab,” says Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at Edinburgh University. “That’s the million-dollar question right now.”
Scientists are monitoring at least three variants, all descendants of the XBB variant (itself a descendant of Omicron). These variants are suspected of being more transmissible, causing more severe disease, or evading immunity more easily. The newest variant, BA.2.86, has been recorded in nine countries as of September 5 and has been designated a “variant under monitoring” by the World Health Organization. Nicknamed Pirola, it caused an outbreak at a UK residential care home for the elderly in August.
According to a technical briefing published by the UK Health Security Agency, the care home was linked to 28 of England’s 34 confirmed cases. There have been five hospitalizations and no deaths. BA.2.86 has over 30 mutations on the spike protein, raising concerns about the effectiveness of redesigned vaccines. However, lab studies show a good antibody response, which should provide sufficient protection from illness.
A more dominant newcomer is EG.5.1, nicknamed Eris, which accounted for nearly a quarter of all sequenced Covid-19 samples in the UK in late August. It has been escalated to a “variant of interest” by the World Health Organization. Early indications suggest that it does not cause more severe disease. Another variant, FL.1.5.1, informally labeled Fornax (Latin for “furnace”), is currently the second most common variant in the US.
The updated Covid-19 vaccines being rolled out this month in the UK and US are modeled on a variant resembling Eris and Fornax, providing reassurance of their effectiveness. However, we should not become complacent. Immunity from vaccines and infection diminishes over time, and new variants are emerging. The WHO recorded 1.4 million new Covid-19 cases in August, a 38% increase from the previous month.
The British government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation is limiting the free vaccine rollout for Covid-19 and flu due to cost considerations. However, in the absence of supply issues, the Covid-19 vaccine should be made available privately at a reasonable price. Many employers would prefer to pay for a Covid-19 booster, as they do for the flu, rather than have their employees out sick.
The UKHSA would welcome a private market for Covid-19 vaccines, according to the FT. Swiftly and affordably adopting these vaccines, with government encouragement to vaccine manufacturers and private providers to negotiate deals if needed, would be beneficial. “Other illnesses”, which includes Covid-19 among other specified conditions, was the second most common reason for sickness absence in the workplace in 2022, according to the Office for National Statistics. The top reason is “minor illnesses”, which is also likely to include cases of Covid-19.
We should not resign ourselves to a cycle of sickness, empty offices, and deserted classrooms. We have safe and effective vaccines — let’s use them.
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