A recent study conducted by McKinsey & Co has revealed that as artificial intelligence becomes more prevalent, women will face greater concerns regarding job automation compared to men. The research, conducted by McKinsey Global Institute, analyzed labor-market trends in the United States up until 2030 and found that women are 1.5 times more likely than men to need to switch careers within the next seven years. This disparity is attributed to the high percentage of women working in industries with lower-wage jobs, which are most vulnerable to AI technology. For instance, office support and customer service sectors, which are heavily populated by women, could see a shrinkage of around 3.7 million and 2.0 million jobs respectively by 2030. Additionally, racial minorities such as Blacks and Hispanics who are concentrated in shrinking occupations within customer service, food services, and production work, will also be adversely affected. Overall, it is estimated that at least 12 million workers in the US will be displaced by technology, compelling them to change occupations by 2030. In particular, low-wage industries could lose around 1.1 million jobs. Workers in these precarious jobs are up to 14 times more likely to be obliged to switch careers compared to their higher-paid counterparts in fields such as transportation, construction, and healthcare. The report emphasizes that employees seeking better-paying jobs will need additional skills to achieve a successful transition. However, even white-collar professionals will not be entirely immune to the advancements in AI. Lawyers, for example, will witness a significant impact from generative AI as it can sift through case law, enabling lawyers to focus on the application of legal arguments. Similarly, tools developed by OpenAI, an artificial intelligence company, can be employed to edit legal documents, saving lawyers valuable time. Civil engineers may also experience significant changes as generative AI accelerates the design process, leading to fewer errors and less rework. This streamlined process is crucial for planning, designing, and executing infrastructure projects, especially at a time when the nation requires more affordable housing and major infrastructure developments. However, the report emphasizes that physical work will not become obsolete, and better-paying job opportunities could even experience significant growth. In fact, it is predicted that up to 3.8 million jobs with higher wages could be created. Despite the potential transformative nature of AI in the workforce, McKinsey Global Institute partner Michael Chui believes that the impact will not be catastrophic, although virtually every job will be affected. If handled correctly, the US workforce could witness a substantial increase in productivity and prosperity. The best-case scenario outlined in the study indicates that productivity could rise from its current rate of 1% to as high as 4%. It is worth noting that even higher-wage jobs are not entirely secure, with lawyers and civil engineers being particularly vulnerable among white-collar workers. Furthermore, the shift towards net-zero emissions is expected to result in a decline in the workforce, with a significant reduction in job opportunities within the oil, gas, and automotive manufacturing industries. Approximately 3.5 million positions may be eliminated by the transition to greener emissions by 2030. However, these jobs will be replaced by new positions within green industries, resulting in a modest gain of around 700,000 jobs, according to the report. The aging population will also contribute to an increased demand for healthcare workers, while e-commerce will drive growth in the transportation services sector.
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