Three days after Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal, the Indian government made an announcement on Thursday that it will immediately halt the export of non-Basmati white rice. The timing of this decision coincides with a global heatwave, raising concerns about food supply chain security worldwide. India currently accounts for over 40% of the world’s rice exports, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations. The Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food, and Public Distribution in India stated that the export stoppage aims to ensure sufficient availability of non-Basmati white rice in the domestic market and stabilize rising prices.
Non-Basmati white rice constitutes a quarter of all Indian rice exports. This move comes as Indians face challenges with high food prices. In September last year, the government imposed a 20% export duty on rice to lower prices in the local market. However, rice retail prices have continued to rise in India, with a 11.5% increase over the past year and a 3.0% increase in the last month.
While this export prohibition may lower prices for consumers in India, its global impact is yet unknown. On Monday, Russia withdrew from the Black Sea grain deal, which allowed food grain shipments to pass through Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea. Russia cited the need to fulfill its own demands regarding food and fertilizer exports before resuming the deal. Although Russia has faced difficulties with shipping and insurance restrictions on its agricultural exports, it has still managed to export record amounts of wheat.
With Russia’s withdrawal from the agreement, Canada has called on Moscow to resume participation to prevent further disruptions to global food systems. The deal, brokered by Turkey and the United Nations last year, enabled Ukraine to ship 32.8 million metric tons of grain, benefiting many developing nations that had been cut off during Russia’s invasion. The Black Sea agreement supported the World Food Program’s humanitarian operations, delivering over 725,000 tons of food grains to countries such as Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, and Yemen, thus alleviating hunger.
The suspension of the Black Sea grain deal will have implications worldwide. China, Spain, Turkey, and Italy have been the biggest recipients of cargo from Black Sea ports since the deal’s inception. Oxfam Canada expressed concern about the potential ripple effects on food prices, food donation efforts, and inequality in Canada. However, this situation also presents an opportunity to develop additional food production regions globally. The UN’s recent State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World report revealed that approximately 725 million people faced chronic hunger in 2022, an increase from 613 million in 2019. The conflict in Ukraine has forced the UN to revise its projections on global hunger, estimating that almost 600 million people will experience chronic undernourishment by 2030.
Overall, the repercussions of the Black Sea grain deal suspension remain uncertain, and its impact extends beyond developing nations in Africa and western Asia. It is crucial to closely monitor the situation’s developments and their influence on food prices, international aid efforts, and food security worldwide.
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