Ukraine and Russia are presently giving rise to concerns about a potential catastrophic event at Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant in Europe, despite the lack of evidence supporting an imminent attack, as stated by independent experts. The anxiety surrounding a nuclear disaster is compounded by the similarities to the recent dam breach incident in Ukraine, where both Kyiv and Moscow accused each other of plotting attacks before its collapse. Additionally, there are growing uncertainties regarding instability in Russia, as Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner chief who led a rebellion against Moscow, has seemingly returned to Russia despite agreeing to exile in Belarus.
Even in the absence of deliberate attacks, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could become collateral damage as Ukraine continues its counteroffensive in the eastern region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized that his intelligence indicates Russian troops have placed potentially explosive objects on several power units’ rooftops at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, possibly to simulate an attack or for other purposes. Zelensky asserts that Russia is the only source of danger to the plant.
Conversely, Russian officials have accused Ukrainians of preparing to drop radioactive waste bombs on the plant. White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has expressed the United States’ concerns over Russia’s occupation of the plant, stating that fighting near the facility is highly dangerous.
Experts argue that Ukraine has little motivation to sabotage the power plant, while Russia may seek to hold it hostage or shut it down to disrupt Ukraine’s critical power supply. Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has confirmed no evidence of explosives being planted at Ukraine’s nuclear plant. However, he has warned about increased military tension and activities in the surrounding region. Grossi emphasizes the importance of his inspectors stationed at the plant verifying the facts objectively and independently to clarify the current situation amidst conflicting allegations.
A disaster at the Zaporizhzhia plant would have severe environmental consequences for southeastern Ukraine, as it could lead to radiation contamination in groundwater and agricultural fields, significantly impacting the global food supply chain. Ukraine plays a crucial role as an international grain producer. Moreover, neighboring countries like Russia and Georgia could also be affected by such a disaster, rendering it catastrophic for civilian energy usage. The power plant generates approximately 15% of Ukraine’s electricity and over half of its nuclear energy.
While a breach at the Zaporizhzhia plant would not be as wide-spread or devastating as the infamous Chernobyl explosion in 1986, according to Bryan Clark, a former U.S. Navy submarine officer, the worst-case scenario would resemble the Three Mile Island accident in Pennsylvania. Clark explains that even if sabotage agents intentionally planted explosives, there is a 50% chance of triggering a disaster similar to Three Mile Island. The environmental impact would be less significant than Chernobyl, but the event could generate terror and panic through its news coverage.
Since Russian forces seized the power plant last spring, Ukrainian officials have consistently warned of a potential nuclear disaster orchestrated by Moscow. Fighting in the vicinity of the plant last year sparked international alarm, leading to the permanent stationing of IAEA inspectors at the facility. Concerns resurfaced in June when Ukraine accused Russia of preparing to blow up the nuclear plant from within as Russian forces allegedly withdrew from the site. Ukraine’s top spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, states that the latest threat from Russia against the power plant has diminished but acknowledges the inherent risk of a disaster as long as Russian forces control the facility. The IAEA has conducted inspections, finding no evidence of explosives or mines at the plant. However, Russia maintains control over the nuclear power station and can influence what the inspectors observe.
The IAEA chief, Grossi, has requested access to additional areas of the plant, including reactors three and four and cooling stations. The IAEA urges both Ukraine and Russia to abide by principles such as refraining from attacking the plant and using it for the storage of heavy weapons. Some humanitarian advocates suggest establishing a fully implemented safe zone around the plant.
The ongoing accusations between Kyiv and Moscow follow similar events preceding the breach of the Kakhovka Dam on the Dnipro River. In both cases, Ukrainian and Russian officials blamed each other for preparing attacks. Kyiv has expressed its desire to regain control of the plant rather than waiting for a disaster orchestrated by Russia. However, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has made incremental progress, and forces are still far from the plant. Ukrainian forces would need to overcome Russian lines to reach the city of Tokmak, a major waypoint near Melitopol, and advance west toward the Dnipro River. Although Ukraine controls territory on the opposite bank of the plant, there are no indications of an attack across the river.
Erath from the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation expresses concern that if forced to retreat, Russian troops may attempt to disable the plant to hinder Ukraine’s economic recovery without triggering an environmental disaster. Russia’s ultimate goal, according to Clark from the Hudson Institute, is to keep Ukraine weak.
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