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KFAR SHOUBA, Lebanon — Each summer, the people of Lebanon anticipate the possibility of war. Throughout the year, border skirmishes and rocket exchanges with Israel have become almost routine. However, since the July War of 2006, the fear of a serious escalation intensifies as the months grow hotter.
In southern Lebanon, along the disputed border with Israel, this apprehension is particularly sharp. Residents feel powerless, as they are at the mercy of events beyond their control, including provocations by Hezbollah and clashes inside Israel. They fear that violence could erupt in their own backyard. To cope, they convince themselves that a full-scale war is too costly for both sides, finding stability in this notion amidst the instability.
Ahmed Deeb, the mayor of al-Wazzani, a village of 400 that has experienced a decline in population after each cross-border conflict, explained, “War doesn’t leave our minds because the decision isn’t in our hands.”
Ten years after the last Lebanon war, Israel warns the next one will be far worse. In early May, a tent was erected over 100 feet south of the Blue Line, the contentious border monitored by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). UN forces witnessed individuals repeatedly crossing from Lebanon into this disputed area. Closed-circuit TV cameras were installed near the tent on May 30. By June 17, a second tent was spotted, leading UNIFIL to request the Lebanese army to remove them.
One of the tents was taken down, while the other remained. Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group and political party, has claimed responsibility for the tents. In a speech marking the 17th anniversary of the July War, leader Hassan Nasrallah stated that they were set up in response to Israel cordoning off parts of the village of Ghajar last year.
Ghajar serves as a microcosm of the region’s entrenched border issues. The southern half of the village is situated in the Golan Heights, a disputed territory annexed by Israel from Syria in 1967. When southern Lebanon was under Israeli occupation, the village expanded into Lebanese territory. The Blue Line, established after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon in 2000, bisected the village, leaving the northern part in Lebanese territory.
However, during the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006, Israeli forces regained control of the northern part of Ghajar. According to the terms of the UN Security Council resolution that ended the conflict, Israel was obligated to withdraw its forces but never did so.
Today, northern Ghajar is Lebanese territory populated by Syrians holding Israeli passports. Despite calls by UNIFIL, the Lebanese government, and Hezbollah for Israel to leave, its forces have increased their presence in the area, fortifying a wall along Ghajar’s northern perimeter.
Nasrallah, in his televised speech, accused Israel of attempting to turn the area into a tourist spot and criticized the United Nations for its perceived double standard. He stated, “The Israeli occupation erected a barbed fence around the Lebanese Ghajar village … and the international community was silent on all Israeli transgressions but moved fast after [Hezbollah] erected a tent at the border.”
Since then, a series of tense incidents have occurred. On June 8, an Israeli bulldozer crossed the withdrawal line to dig trenches in the village of Kfar Shouba, close to the disputed territory called Shebaa Farms. Ismail Nasser, a Lebanese villager, stood in the bulldozer’s way and refused to move. A video capturing the incident went viral across the Arab world, bringing to mind imagery of Palestinians throwing rocks.
“I felt as if there were 500 people grasping onto my legs and not letting go, as if it wasn’t even my own will,” said Nasser, a retired army officer. “It was as if you super-glued my feet to the ground.”
Nasser revealed that before the video was recorded, the bulldozer had retreated and changed its route several times to bypass him. He believed that killing a Lebanese citizen on Lebanese land, albeit disputed, would warrant a response. This thought emboldened him.
“We suffer constantly, daily,” he expressed in an interview at his home last week. His mother lost her eye due to a mine explosion in 1975. His father and brother were imprisoned by the Israelis. In 2004, ten goats died during a bombardment, and in 2008, one of his shepherds was killed.
Nasser blames all sides involved in the chaos in the south, including Israel, Hezbollah, and the ineffective Lebanese government. However, he believes that a full-scale war is “impossible.”
“America doesn’t have time to support Israel [in such a war], and Russia doesn’t have time to support Lebanon,” he stated, “And Arab countries also don’t want to have to rebuild Lebanon. So we are in a state of stable lack of calm. We are stable, but anxious.”
Local anxiety heightened on July 6 when rockets were launched from southern Lebanon by suspected Palestinian militants in response to Israel’s large-scale military operation in the West Bank. Israel retaliated with strikes, but there were no casualties on either side.
Then, on July 12, the anniversary of the July War, several Hezbollah members were injured when the Israeli military used a “nonlethal weapon” to push back suspects attempting to damage a security fence.
Israel has subsequently increased its military presence along the border, despite facing protests at home over a controversial plan to weaken the Supreme Court. Israeli army officials have repeatedly warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his security cabinet, and American counterparts that Hezbollah is preparing to take advantage of internal Israeli upheaval and launch an offensive, according to local news reports.
With thousands of Israeli reservists threatening to boycott their training to protest the judicial push, Israeli Defense Forces chief of staff Herzi Halevi issued a rare statement last week, warning that a weakened Israeli military would jeopardize the country’s existence.
In October, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a US-brokered deal to demarcate their maritime borders, which was hailed as a historic breakthrough by diplomats. Many have hoped that the resolution of land borders will follow suit.
In meetings chaired by UNIFIL every five to six weeks, the Lebanese and Israelis discuss military issues, including violations along the Blue Line. These meetings require a delicate balance: no media is allowed, food is provided by the Italian UNIFIL contingent to avoid tension over which local cuisine should be served, and the generals do not shake hands.
Describing the scene, UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti said, “Just two sides sitting in a very small room, on very uncomfortable chairs on purpose to just keep the focus very military.”
Tenenti stressed the need for separate meetings that specifically address demarcating the Blue Line. The Lebanese have 13 points of dispute along the border, while the Israelis have an undisclosed number. Finding a geographical starting point for negotiations is a sticking point.
“Both sides are keen to solve the contentious issues in their own way,” Tenenti explained.
The ongoing meetings and 17 years of relative stability indicate, to Tenenti, that neither side has “an appetite for a conflict.” However, he admitted that the state of calm is always precarious.
“There’s been a lot of increasing tensions,” he acknowledged, “but nothing has changed.”
(Shira Rubin in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.)
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