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On Sunday, voters in Ecuador will cast their ballots amidst an unprecedented wave of political violence in the country’s modern history.
The election will feature eight presidential candidates and elect a new legislature. If no candidate secures more than 40 percent of the vote with a 10 percent margin, a run-off will take place in October. Given the high number of candidates, a second round of voting is expected.
Last week, the snap election was thrown into chaos when Fernando Villavicencio, a center-right anti-corruption candidate, was assassinated after a rally in the capital, Quito.
Currently, six Colombian nationals are in custody in connection with the murder. The government has vowed to identify the “intellectual authors” behind the plot. However, the motive for the assassination has yet to be determined.
Prior to a media blackout earlier this month, leftist Luisa González was leading in the polls. Her mentor, former president Rafael Correa, has campaigned for her from his exile in Belgium, where he resides to avoid a corruption conviction in Ecuador.
The country’s security crisis has been a major focus of the campaign. In the first six months of this year, approximately 3,500 people have been killed, surpassing last year’s total of 4,800 murders and quadrupling the number from 2018, according to the interior ministry. Drug-trafficking groups have seized the opportunity to expand in Ecuador, taking advantage of lax security at ports along the Pacific.
Jose Castillo, a 30-year-old music producer in Quito, who plans to vote for González, said, “The first step towards progress in Ecuador is to end the violence. However, the right-wing won’t be able to achieve this.”
Concerned about security, architect Doménica Ochoa is supporting Otto Sonnenholzner, a center-right candidate who is friendly towards investors. She believes that without security, foreign investment in Ecuador will be compromised.
The country has been paralyzed by political violence, with three politicians, including Villavicencio, assassinated in the past month. Agustin Intriago, the mayor of Manta, was killed during a public event in late July, while Pedro Briones, a loyalist to Correa, was shot dead in Esmeraldas, a violent province on the Colombian border. Additionally, a shootout occurred near former vice-president Sonnenholzner while he was dining at a restaurant in Guayaquil. However, police have stated that the gunfire was not directed at the candidate but was a result of a nearby robbery.
Another candidate, Daniel Noboa, reported that his motorcade was fired upon. However, the interior minister clarified that Noboa was not the intended target.
In preparation for the election, the interior minister announced the deployment of 100,000 police and soldiers across the country, where voting is mandatory. Initial election results are expected on Sunday evening.
The election was hastily arranged after President Guillermo Lasso dissolved the congress in May using a constitutional clause known as “mutual death.” This action came as Lasso faced impeachment charges over alleged embezzlement relating to contracts signed before his tenure.
In addition to electing a new president, voters will also decide on two referendum questions – whether to halt oil drilling in the Amazon and mining in the Chocó Andino, a vast region near Quito. Approval of both measures is anticipated.
Whoever becomes the next president of Ecuador will face the challenge of managing a growing fiscal deficit and increasing debt service costs in a country known for its oil and shrimp exports.
Ecuadorian political analyst and King’s College London researcher, Domenica Avila, believes that the election violence may benefit the law-and-order candidate Jan Topic and Christian Zurita, who replaced Villavicencio on the ticket. However, she also emphasizes that the situation reflects poorly on Ecuador’s institutions, questioning the country’s commitment to democracy and the protection of citizens’ voting rights.
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