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As the retirement age continues to rise in the UK, there is a growing number of people who will never reach this milestone. This issue is particularly pronounced in the most deprived areas of the country. Shockingly, among the most deprived 10%, a quarter of individuals will pass away before they reach the planned retirement age of 68, while in the least deprived decile, fewer than 1 in 10 will experience the same fate.
The decision on when to raise the retirement age has been postponed by ministers this year, as they may have feared the public’s negative response given the declining life expectancy even prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this dilemma will have to be addressed by the next government after the upcoming general election. The decision made will greatly affect those who heavily rely on pension benefits. This vulnerable group not only faces higher odds of dying before retirement, but also of not being in a healthy state to enjoy their leisure years.
Statistics reveal that significantly more deaths occurred in the most deprived 10% compared to the most affluent 10% in 2022, at every single age up until 83. For someone living in the highest decile, the death of a friend at the age of 60 may be considered young. However, those in the most deprived group are likely to know three times as many individuals who have died at that age.
One might assume that the higher mortality rates among the poorest individuals are due to “poor decisions” such as smoking, unhealthy diets, or drug use. However, the consistent discrepancy even among children suggests a more complex relationship. In 2022, ten times more eight-year-olds died in the most deprived decile compared to the least deprived.
Even for those fortunate enough to reach retirement age, good health is not guaranteed. According to the Office for National Statistics, the average Brit will begin to experience poor health nearly five years prior to the retirement age of 68.
The disparities in health outcomes are staggering. Only individuals in the top 20% would reach the retirement age of 68 in good health if everyone in England lived up to their decile’s average healthy life expectancy. While medical advancements may be expected to have a positive impact, recent data suggests that healthy life expectancy has not increased and, in some areas, has even worsened. Consequently, each increase in retirement age diminishes the potential for a healthy later life.
Examining health status on a survival chart for the top and bottom deciles provides further insights. By comparing the chances of good and bad health as individuals age, we can see that a baby born in England’s most affluent areas has a 71% chance of reaching 68 in good health, whereas in the poorest areas, the chances are less than half of that. Individuals in the poorest regions are more likely to attend funerals or visit friends in the hospital than engage in recreational activities like hiking, which is more common among their peers in the top decile.
However, enjoying a healthy retirement is not solely dependent on physical well-being; maintaining that health also plays a crucial role. People in the top decile are more than twice as likely as those in the bottom decile to experience ten or more healthy years after reaching retirement age.
If we were to shift from a universal retirement age to a universal “chance of a healthy retirement,” we could establish fairer objectives. For instance, if we ensure that every newborn has a 50% chance of enjoying ten or more years of leisure, the retirement age for the top decile could be set slightly below 68, while those in the bottom decile would have the freedom to retire at 46. A single retirement age policy becomes regressive in practice, resulting in disadvantaged groups receiving less pension overall due to their consistently shorter lifespans. Nevertheless, simply acknowledging the disparities between the most and least fortunate is a step in the right direction. Many countries still lack this vital data. Recognizing this regressive nature is the first step towards rectifying these policy issues.
Methodology:
The third chart illustrating survival and health status by age was created using the most recent life tables published by the ONS for the 2018-2020 period. To calculate the survival data, I combined male and female figures to obtain an average across both genders. I then combined this with proportional self-reported health status data from the 2021 census.
Both the life tables and health data provide information in age groups. To derive figures for specific ages, I assumed a constant rate of change within each age group, enabling me to approximate values for particular ages.
Throughout this article, I utilized a retirement age of 68 to calculate figures. This is due to the fact that the data represents individuals born in the 2018-2020 period, who will have a minimum retirement age of 68.
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