Epidemiologists are closely monitoring the significant increase in flu activity in the Southern Hemisphere during their winter season to gain insights into what the U.S. can expect. Recent data from the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care revealed a rise in influenza-like illnesses in various regions in May. The highest activity was observed among young children aged 5 to 9, followed by those aged 4 and younger, and then ages 10 to 14. Dr. Carrie Reed, the chief of CDC’s Influenza Division Epidemiology and Prevention branch, stated that some countries are experiencing higher or earlier flu activity compared to previous years, while others have typical or lower activity. The CDC continues to monitor global influenza trends.
A review of data from the World Health Organization and Australia’s Surveillance Report confirms that the increasing flu activity in Australia falls within historical ranges. However, the CDC remains vigilant in its monitoring efforts. It’s important to note that many people recover from the flu without seeking medical care, and some may only seek care after the period when the flu can be detected through respiratory samples.
The Southern Hemisphere typically experiences its flu season between April and September, while the Northern Hemisphere, including the U.S., has its flu season from October to May. Dr. Aaron Glatt, chief of infectious diseases at Mount Sinai South Nassau Hospital, highlights the significance of monitoring Southern Hemisphere flu activity as an indicator for the U.S. winter season. However, he acknowledges that there are no strict rules in determining the accuracy of these predictions.
Dr. Reed emphasizes that Southern Hemisphere flu activity does not always predict U.S. flu activity. Different influenza viruses may prevail in different regions, and population immunity can also vary between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
As of now, most areas in the U.S. are reporting minimal or low influenza-like activity, which is typical for this time of year. The CDC’s Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report indicates that between 2010 and 2020, flu caused millions of illnesses, thousands of hospitalizations, and thousands of deaths each year. It’s challenging to determine the exact number due to underreporting and various factors that facilitate flu transmission, such as school reopening and holiday travel.
Flu tests are most effective when conducted within a week after the onset of symptoms. Some commonly used tests may not be highly sensitive and can result in false negative results. The reporting of adult flu deaths is not mandatory, so many cases go unreported. The CDC utilizes statistical models to estimate the overall burden of flu cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.
Predicting the flu season is challenging due to several unknown variables, including weather conditions and population immunity. Human behavior and social interactions also contribute to flu transmission, highlighting the potential impact of widespread masking on reducing its spread. Additionally, individuals who typically receive annual flu vaccinations can now consider getting vaccinated for updated COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccines. The CDC recommends getting an annual flu vaccine, and September and October are ideal times for vaccination.
The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices is scheduled to convene in June to provide vaccination recommendations for specific patient populations regarding RSV.
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