The intricate web of deception and manipulation that Vladimir Putin has weaved around himself and his nation is so elaborate and layered that it is difficult to believe that even the Russian president himself could have foreseen the reality of a genuine insurrection in Russia. The true motives of the key figures involved, particularly Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, are still unknown to us less than a day after the rebellion began. Prigozhin, whose fighters have been involved in brutal conflicts across Africa and the Middle East, claims to command a force of 25,000 men in Ukraine. In a recent statement, he accused the Russian army of killing a significant number of his mercenaries in a recent bombing raid, and called for an armed rebellion to overthrow Russian military leaders.
Prigozhin has been openly criticizing Russia’s military leadership for some time now, mocking the Russian minister of defense and publicly blaming them, along with their oligarch associates, for the invasion of Ukraine. According to him, Russia initiated the war in a quest for more territory and wealth, resulting in the unnecessary deaths of thousands of Russian soldiers. His message is clear: the malevolence of the military leadership must be stopped, and those who resist will be considered a threat and eliminated. The dramatic and bombastic nature of his statement, along with the audacious claim that 25,000 mercenaries will overthrow the Russian army during an active war, has led many to question its authenticity.
Initially, it seemed impossible that Prigozhin’s claims could be true. However, with the appearance of Wagner vehicles on the road from Ukraine to Rostov, and Prigozhin posting a video of himself at the Southern Military District headquarters in Rostov, the possibility of a rebellion started to become more plausible. Theories about the situation began to emerge, suggesting collaboration between Prigozhin and the Ukrainians or the Russian army’s attempts to suppress Prigozhin’s operations. Others speculated that Prigozhin’s actions were driven by a desire for respect and revenge against the military leadership. There is also the question of whether some Russian soldiers are willing to join him.
Given the lack of reliable mainstream media in Russia and the prevalence of state propaganda, obtaining accurate information about the current situation is challenging. Sources of insight include unreliable Russian Telegram accounts and Western and Ukrainian open-source intelligence bloggers who are further from the action but considered trustworthy. The Kremlin itself may also lack reliable information. Just a month ago, Putin praised Prigozhin and Wagner for their role in the “liberation” of Bakhmut, yet now an insurrection led by Prigozhin is unfolding.
Military vehicles are now seen patrolling Moscow, implementing “Operation Fortress” to protect the security service headquarters. There are reports of various military and security units being put on high alert in preparation for a supposed Ukrainian terrorist attack. The clashes between Putin’s perception of reality and his conflict with Prigozhin are reaching a critical point. Prigozhin demands a meeting with the defense minister, knowing full well it is impossible, and Putin has denounced him indirectly, accusing him of treason. Some Russian security leaders are treating an alleged Wagner Telegram channel as genuine and pledging loyalty to Putin. Russia appears to be sliding into a civil war in a disorganized manner.
The current state of affairs may not be entirely surprising. Putin has spent months, if not years, blaming external forces for Russia’s problems, creating a facade of strength and unity. Now he is facing a movement that embodies the true values of the modern Russian military and the nation itself. Prigozhin and his mercenaries, motivated by self-interest and disillusioned with corruption, equipment deficiencies, and the unnecessary loss of lives, offer them a plausible explanation for their failures. This is not a Christian crusade; it is a fight against betrayal and the shortcomings of their leaders.
There are historical precedents to this moment. In 1905, the Russian fleet’s dismal performance in the war against Japan contributed to a failed revolution. In 1917, soldiers returning from World War I sparked a more renowned revolution. Putin alluded to these moments in his recent televised address, highlighting the catastrophic consequences that occur when arguments and divisions plague the army. He failed to mention that Czar Nicholas II, before his downfall, believed that the Russian peasants loved him and would always support him. He was wrong.
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