President Biden has given his approval for the provision of U.S. cluster munitions to Ukraine. This decision allows for the withdrawal of the weapons from Defense Department stocks, and the announcement is expected to be made on Friday. Despite U.S. law prohibiting the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1 percent, this move has been made due to concerns over Ukraine’s struggle to counter Russian troops and the declining stocks of conventional artillery in the West. The controversial nature of cluster munitions, which are banned by most countries in the world, has caused internal debate within the Biden administration.
Cluster munitions are explosive weapons that disperse multiple smaller munitions over a wide area. They have been banned by more than 120 countries due to their inhumane and indiscriminate nature. The high failure rates of these munitions lead to unexploded submunitions posing risks to both troops and civilians for many years after a conflict ends. The United States, Ukraine, and Russia are not party to the convention banning cluster munitions. Additionally, eight NATO members, including the United States, have not ratified the convention.
The main type of cluster munition under consideration is the M864 artillery shell, which has a reported failure rate of 6 percent according to a Pentagon assessment from over 20 years ago. Each shell carries 72 submunitions, and an estimated four of these submunitions remain unexploded across an area roughly the size of 4½ football fields. The Pentagon now claims to have new assessments, based on recent testing, indicating failure rates no higher than 2.35 percent. While this still exceeds the 1 percent limit mandated by Congress since 2017, the Pentagon is selectively choosing munitions with a failure rate of 2.35 percent or below for transfer to Ukraine.
The decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine bypasses the 1 percent limit imposed by Congress and the Foreign Assistance Act, as President Biden deems it in the vital national security interest of the United States. Estimates suggest that there are approximately 4.7 million cluster munitions containing over 500 million submunitions in military inventories, with no new production in recent years. However, there are discrepancies in failure rate estimates, with some manufacturers claiming rates between 2 and 5 percent, while mine clearance specialists report rates of 10 to 30 percent.
Critics of cluster munitions argue that claimed lower failure rates are the result of testing in unrealistic conditions that do not reflect real-world scenarios. The lack of transparency surrounding how failure rates are determined is concerning to advocates who have warned against their use. Despite Russia’s extensive use of cluster munitions, Ukraine has also allegedly deployed these weapons during the war. HRW reports have documented civilian casualties resulting from Ukrainian use of cluster munitions.
The failure rate of cluster munitions is a key factor in determining if they should be supplied. In 2008, then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates banned the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate exceeding 1 percent. The Trump administration reversed this limit in 2017, leading Congress to adopt legislation banning funding for cluster munitions with failure rates above 1 percent. Despite these developments, the United States has responded to Ukraine’s pleas for cluster munitions due to the country’s need to counter Russia’s artillery advantage.
The decision to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine has received mixed responses from U.S. lawmakers. Some support the move, believing it will help Ukraine compensate for Russia’s advantage in personnel and artillery rounds. Others, including many Democrats, remain cautious and have called for additional information about the specific munitions being sent and how they will be used.
In conclusion, the decision to provide cluster munitions to Ukraine is a controversial move that bypasses legal limits and international conventions. The use and failure rates of these weapons raise concerns about the potential harm to civilians and the long-term risks caused by unexploded submunitions. The decision reflects the complex geopolitical dynamics surrounding the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.
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