Analysts: Moderna Positioned to Exceed COVID Forecast by 2023, Differentiating from Pfizer

Syringes with needles are seen in front of a displayed Moderna logo in this illustration taken, November 27, 2021. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo

Moderna poised to meet sales target as analysts project strong vaccine demand from private market

(Reuters) – Industry analysts believe that Moderna (MRNA.O) is on track to achieve its sales target for this year by tapping into the private market with its COVID vaccine. According to four analysts surveyed by Reuters, Moderna only needs to vaccinate approximately 20 million people with its updated COVID-19 vaccine in order to reach $2 billion in sales from the private market by 2023. The analysts expressed confidence in the achievability of this figure.

In anticipation of the fall season, Moderna has forecasted a total U.S. COVID vaccine demand of up to 100 million doses. The company estimates sales of its COVID-19 vaccine to reach $6 billion to $8 billion in 2023, with $2 billion to $4 billion projected to come from the commercial market. The remaining sales will be covered by previously signed government contracts.

However, the accuracy of Moderna’s sales forecast was questioned after Pfizer (PFE.N) recently revised down its full-year outlook for COVID-19 shot sales by approximately $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates. As a result of this news, Moderna’s shares experienced a 22% decline.

Analyst Hartaj Singh from Oppenheimer & Co believed that Moderna is unlikely to experience a similar negative impact on its sales outlook because the company took a more conservative approach in its initial projections. Jefferies analyst Michael Yee also expressed optimism, noting that the rollout of Moderna’s updated shots has gained momentum, with increasing demand expected from individuals aged 65 and over.

Moderna is set to release its third-quarter results on Thursday, following Pfizer’s announcement of its first quarterly loss since 2019. Pfizer incurred a significant charge due to the U.S. government returning millions of doses of its COVID-19 antiviral treatment Paxlovid, as well as inventory of its COVID vaccine Comirnaty.

Moderna currently focuses solely on its COVID vaccine as its marketed product. The company’s research and development costs surged 62% to $1.1 billion in the second quarter as it pursues the development of other products, including a flu vaccine and a shot against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

A late-stage trial found Moderna’s RSV vaccine, expected to launch in the United States in 2024, to be 82.4% effective in older adults with three or more symptoms. It will compete with recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK (GSK.L). Furthermore, data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with an updated formulation revealed a stronger immune response against all four A and B strains of the influenza virus compared to traditional flu shots.

Analyst Michael Yee predicts that Moderna’s broader mRNA-based respiratory pipeline, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, will generate $10 billion to $12 billion in sales, thus reducing expenses and ensuring R&D stability by 2025.

Reporting by Manas Mishra and Khushi Mandowara in Bengaluru and Patrick Wingrove in New York; Editing by Bill Berkrot

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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