Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the paramilitary Wagner Group, has been making waves in the war in Ukraine since early May. Through social media channels and on Telegram, Prigozhin has relentlessly criticized the Russian military command, specifically accusing them of failing to provide ammunition to his forces. This public display of dissent in a time of strict control over Russian media and politics has left many observers confused about the underlying power struggles at play.
In a video posted on May 4, Prigozhin can be seen surrounded by the bodies of dead Wagner fighters, hurling insults at Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff. In subsequent videos, he threatened to withdraw his troops from Bakhmut unless they were supplied with more ammunition. These actions have led many to speculate that Prigozhin’s outbursts are a direct attack on Russian President Vladimir Putin. However, it’s more likely that Prigozhin sees Putin as the supreme commander who understands the needs of the Wagner Group but is being sabotaged by the military command.
Prigozhin’s strategy seems to be following the traditional Russian narrative of the “good tsar surrounded by bad boyars.” Turning on Putin would be a suicidal move for Prigozhin, as he is engaged in an unequal fight with the Russian military leadership and relies on Putin’s protection for his survival.
The legality of the Wagner Group’s existence is questionable, as Russian law considers mercenary activities to be punishable by prison sentences. However, with Putin’s approval, the Wagner Group has evolved into a formidable private army with its own heavy weaponry and air force. Its involvement in the conflict escalated after Russia suffered major defeats last summer and needed more fighters on the battlefield. Prigozhin was granted access to Russian prisons, where he recruited thousands of inmates. This recruitment was illegal, but it showcased Putin’s trust in him and his preference for noninstitutional methods of running affairs.
Prison inmates have become a valuable and expendable resource in Putin’s assault on Ukraine. They are sent to the battlefield as cannon fodder, with reports emerging of executions for defection or questioning orders. The losses suffered by the Wagner Group in the Battle of Bakhmut were significant, highlighting the disregard for human life in this under-equipped war.
The military leadership has never been fond of Prigozhin, especially since his public criticisms of their management of the war. As the owner of a private army, Prigozhin is seen as an enemy of the state by the FSB, Russia’s main intelligence agency. However, his direct access to and support from Putin have shielded him from any consequences.
However, Prigozhin’s position has weakened since the end of 2022. Putin realized that he had enough manpower for his war and allowed high-ranking generals to sideline Prigozhin bureaucratically. The Wagner Group lost access to prisons, and the Defense Ministry took control of sending convicts to the battlefield through proper legislation. In response, Prigozhin has intensified his criticism of the military and started involving himself in politics.
Prigozhin’s recent actions indicate a shift in his approach. He has stood up for individuals affected by the war, spoken respectfully of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and ridiculed officials advocating for nuclear strikes on Ukraine. This transformation from a ruthless warlord to a voice of reason against the grotesque war narrative of Russian officials is ironic, considering his violent past and aggression.
Prigozhin’s rising popularity reflects a disillusionment among Russians with Putin’s failed war in Ukraine and the incompetence of the military command. Putin values loyalty over achievement, wanting to remain the sole war hero. Prigozhin, positioning himself as the “people’s commander,” offers straightforward criticism while accusing the commanders of luxuriating in Moscow while soldiers suffer. His message resonates with Russians as the situation on the front worsens.
The question remains: why does Putin allow Prigozhin’s public criticism? One practical reason could be that Prigozhin’s troops have proven their military efficiency and are still needed in the ongoing war. Another reason is the personal trust Putin has in Prigozhin, who has provided assistance and advice on sensitive matters. Prigozhin has been known to criticize the military command directly to Putin, a rare instance of someone telling the truth about the war to the Russian leader.
However, Prigozhin is treading on dangerous ground. Recent leaks suggest he has been in contact with Ukrainian intelligence and offered information in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut. While Putin may initially view this as legitimate back-channel diplomacy or even as part of a trap, Prigozhin’s actions could be seen as an assault on the state itself. If Putin interprets it as such, Prigozhin’s downfall would be swift.
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