As world leaders gather this week for the highly anticipated NATO summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, the unity of the alliance may face new challenges as divisions over Ukraine’s future membership assurances become more pronounced.
After more than 500 days of enduring a war initiated by Russia in February 2021, Ukraine has been advocating for a clear path towards NATO membership, but some member countries seem hesitant to provide it.
This impasse has raised concerns in Kyiv and among certain eastern European NATO members that the Vilnius summit, which the Biden administration has touted as a display of unwavering support, may result in ambiguous commitments similar to those made in Bucharest in 2008.
During the Bucharest summit, NATO members informed Ukraine and fellow candidate Georgia that they “will become members” of the alliance. However, despite pressure from then-U.S. President George W. Bush, they declined to offer them Membership Action Plans (MAP) that would have outlined a detailed roadmap. Later that year, Russia invaded Georgia, followed by the seizure of Crimea in 2014.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his allies in eastern Europe argue that well-defined commitments from NATO are crucial for boosting the morale of Ukrainian fighters and deterring Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has relied on diminishing Western support for Ukraine.
In an interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova, stated, “We are preparing for NATO membership.” She emphasized that since 2008, Ukraine has adopted an “open door policy” and now desires an invitation to join.
A Western diplomat, speaking anonymously, revealed that while Eastern European nations, particularly the hosts of the summit, have been proactive, other allies have cautioned against being too forward. While efforts have been made to update the commitments made in Bucharest, the diplomat acknowledged that the outcome may not be crystal clear.
The diplomat stressed that the world must understand that the direction for Ukraine hasn’t changed. Meanwhile, the Biden administration has stated that Ukraine will not be offered membership in NATO at Vilnius, considering the ongoing conflict.
In an interview with CNN, President Biden remarked that he doesn’t believe Ukraine is ready for NATO membership in the midst of a war. Senator Chris Coons noted that while Ukraine must receive security guarantees, the decision on NATO membership rests with the 31 NATO members.
Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s National Security Advisor, echoed similar sentiments, stating that the U.S. will support Ukraine and provide them with substantial arms and capabilities while avoiding starting a world war.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg announced that the alliance will commit to a multi-year assistance program for Ukraine and establish a NATO-Ukraine Council to enhance their political ties. Stoltenberg expects the allied leaders to reaffirm Ukraine’s future membership in NATO at the summit.
Meanwhile, President Biden is also working towards Sweden’s accession to NATO. Senator Coons expressed confidence in making progress on Sweden’s membership and emphasized the strategic defeat it would represent for Putin. Coons praised President Biden’s leadership in ensuring NATO remains strong and united.
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