In the wake of Hamas’s surprise attack on Israel, social media users in Israel dubbed the day a “second Yom Kippur” or an “Israeli 9/11.” This attack marked the first time since the 1947–49 Arab-Israeli War that Palestinian or Arab forces had captured Israeli villages.
Hamas executed a stunning military surprise by breaching the Israeli border and attacking multiple population centers and military bases. They kidnapped dozens of Israelis, including children and the elderly, and captured military personnel. The failure of Israel’s intelligence and preparedness is comparable only to that of 1973.
However, this victory for Hamas might be short-lived. The trauma caused in Israel by this attack should give pause to those assuming Israel will simply retaliate in kind. The situation in Gaza, already dire, may worsen in the coming weeks.
Israel is likely to initiate a thorough search for those involved in the attack, with the Israel Defense Forces already launching attacks on the Gaza Strip. After clearing Israeli towns of Hamas militants, the focus will shift to Gaza.
The Israeli government will face pressure to send ground troops into the Gaza Strip, possibly ending the standoff with Hamas and removing them from power. However, Israel has refrained from doing so thus far due to the likelihood of significant casualties. Moreover, Israel has no answer to the question of what would replace Hamas. Nonetheless, the Israeli public will demand decisive action, including ground operations, even if a complete takeover is not achieved.
Israel’s sensitivity towards prisoners of war (POWs) and missing in action (MIAs) is well-known. The current Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was once released from an Israeli prison along with more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for a single Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit. Sinwar now holds dozens of Israelis captive. The Israeli government faces a dilemma: engage with force and risk more casualties, or be at the mercy of a terrorist organization on their border. Agreeing to the demand of freeing all Hamas and Islamic Jihad operatives from Israeli prisons would be challenging for the government. There is a possibility that Israel may choose to negotiate or undertake risky rescue operations in Gaza, with the best-case scenario being only partial success.
Israel’s northern neighbors should also pay attention to this moment. In 2006, just three weeks after Shalit’s capture, Hezbollah initiated an attack on Israel’s northern border, leading to a bloody war that lasted over 30 days and caused significant damage to Lebanon. Given Lebanon’s current state of economic collapse, it would be wise for Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, not to make the same mistake. Israel is feeling cornered and under severe threat, which could result in a stronger response than Hezbollah expects.
The United States plays a crucial role in this situation. Since Israel and Hezbollah have no direct contact, Washington could communicate the consequences Nasrallah would face if he intervenes. President Joe Biden has already publicly warned against any other party hostile to Israel taking advantage of the situation.
It is important to note that Hezbollah and Hamas are not comparable to Egypt or Syria. Israel does not face an existential threat from these groups, despite the horrific attack by Hamas. However, the psychological impact, public outrage, and military blunders bear similarities to the 1973 war. Furthermore, the death toll, considering Israel’s size, is comparable to 9/11.
This attack signifies a genuine state of war for Israel, rather than just another round of fighting between Israel and Hamas. The psychological impact paves the way for more aggressive actions and demands from Israel. The massive demonstrations in the country have come to a halt, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to overhaul Israel’s democratic institutions may have to be postponed. Thousands of reservists have answered the call to duty, even those who had previously protested against the government’s radical agenda.
It is often believed that Israelis only compromise after being attacked, as seen in the 1973 peace agreement with Egypt. However, the argument is overemphasized since Israel faces frequent attacks. The current situation may demonstrate something entirely different: when Israelis believe they are fighting for their lives and the lives of their families, they will fight. Israel remains much stronger than its adversaries, despite the recent setback.
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