Updated at 6:53 p.m. ET on June 24, 2023.
Russia is currently experiencing a state of fragmentation. While Yevgeny Prigozhin recently surprised everyone with his decision to stand down on his way to Moscow, it is evident that his actions pose the most significant threat to Vladimir Putin since the latter assumed power in 1999. The ongoing Wagner Group plot indicates that the story may not have reached its conclusion yet. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the dynamics of coups and what leads to their success or failure.
The very idea of a dictator facing his downfall often brings to mind the image of masses taking to the streets and overthrowing statues, with the despotic leader fleeing his palace alongside henchmen carrying cases filled with hastily packed cash. While such occurrences do happen, they are the exceptions. In most cases, dictators are overthrown when their military becomes divided into factions, and one of these factions turns against the regime. If all factions unite against the dictator, then it is time for the henchmen, the cash-filled suitcases, and a swift departure.
Since the end of World War II, two-thirds of all dictators have been ousted through coups d’état – irregular takeovers of power, usually led by factions within the military. However, coup attempts have become less frequent in recent years. During the peak of the Cold War, an average of 13 coup plots occurred globally every year. Since 2010, this number has dropped to around two or three per year. Due to their rarity and unique nature, coup attempts are difficult to predict. Nevertheless, certain patterns can help us understand their potential for success or failure once they are underway.
Over the past decade, I have extensively studied coups worldwide, including those in Thailand, Madagascar, Zambia, and Tunisia. Through conversations with numerous generals and soldiers involved in coup plots, as well as those who join them after they begin, I have identified a few key factors shared by successful coups.
The most successful coups are those in which the military remains united. For example, in Thailand, coups are typically carried out by the military leadership, who publicly announce the overthrow of civilian politicians. With no armed opposition, Thai coups almost always succeed. No divisions, no risk of failure. After all, what can the president or prime minister do in response – open fire on the army?
In cases where the coup is organized by a faction within the military, as seen in Russia, the dynamics become more complex. Such a coup plot is unlike a battle, where the larger and stronger force usually prevails. Instead, the success of the plot relies more on perception than sheer strength. The plotters are essentially engaged in a PR game, attempting to create an atmosphere that guarantees the success of their coup. Nobody wants to be on the losing side, as the consequences are severe. Remaining loyal to the dictator and witnessing their downfall could result in imprisonment or even execution by the usurpers. On the other hand, joining the plot and failing would lead to the same fate, often including a dreaded encounter with the dictator’s torture chambers. Soldiers and officers are making high-stakes bets, and picking the losing side rarely ends well.
When coups triumph, they often reach a tipping point that triggers a “bandwagon effect.” Similar to how sports teams see a significant increase in their fan base when they are close to winning a championship, coup plotters witness their ranks swell when it appears they are on the verge of toppling the dictator.
In the face of coup attempts, dictators desperately try to control information, assert their authority, and maintain visibility. That is why Putin addressed the nation this morning and why reports have emerged about digital censorship aimed at blocking access to information regarding the Wagner Group or Prigozhin’s videos. It is crucial to project an image of calmness and control, a strategy effectively employed by Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, during the 2016 attempted coup when he communicated with the nation via FaceTime.
Successful coups also capitalize on surprising the regime during a moment of vulnerability. Many plots are executed when a dictator is abroad, ill, or otherwise susceptible. In such instances, the dictator’s response is delayed (some successful coups have even occurred while a dictator is undergoing surgery abroad). In this particular case, Prigozhin chose to strike at a time when the Kremlin is embroiled in a bloody and seemingly futile stalemate in Ukraine. He timed his plot well, considering that people around the dictator already harbor doubts about him, increasing the likelihood of bandwagoning.
So what would happen if a military scheme against Putin were to succeed? Surprisingly, it would not involve a high-casualty tank battle or street gunfights in Moscow. A successful coup would require one of two things: defections to the plotters or inaction against them.
For coup ringleaders, the best-case scenario involves high-profile defections, where senior military leaders publicly declare their support for the plot. These defections reinforce the perception that the coup will succeed, thus influencing even the lowest-ranking soldiers who were previously on the fence.
However, sometimes, not taking action is enough for coup plots to overthrow governments. Rostov-on-Don, for instance, witnessed no gun battles but rather a passive acceptance by Russian soldiers who were unwilling to sacrifice their lives to shoot at their former comrades. Prigozhin’s forces took Rostov-on-Don in a manner similar to how Putin expected to capture Kyiv – with minimal resistance. When a military refrains from decisively countering a coup, it provides the plotters an opportunity to create an aura of inevitability around their endeavor. If Prigozhin had prolonged the coup attempt, the chances of success would have been higher.
However, Putin, though occasionally irrational, is no fool. He has meticulously “coup-proofed” his regime, ensuring that when someone attacks his forces, they respond with force rather than turning against him. Putin has achieved this by fostering a divided security sector plagued by internal competition, preventing any single faction from dominating the rest. Furthermore, three of Putin’s core security and intelligence services (the GRU, SVR, and FSB) possess elite special operations units comprised of loyalists.
In addition to this “praetorian guard,” Putin has insulated himself by creating a deeply disorienting environment of disinformation within Russia. The population is mired in a state of uncertainty, where truth becomes elusive, and anything seems possible, as Peter Pomerantsev astutely highlights. On the one hand, few soldiers would be willing to defy their superiors based on mere whispers, rumors, and unverified reports about Wagner’s advancements. On the other hand, soldiers in Putin’s Russia will constantly question whether they have been told the truth when Putin claims that he remains in complete control.
Coup plots are rapidly evolving crises characterized by uncertainty, where nobody truly understands the situation, and all decisions are made based on imperfect information within the fog of war. Therefore, coups are among the most unpredictable occurrences in the realm of politics. Any claim of knowing how Putin will fall is simply a falsehood. Nevertheless, despite the call-off of this particular plot, Prigozhin’s challenge to Putin will undeniably mark a decisive moment in Russia’s dictatorship and the war in Ukraine.
Regardless of their loyalty, everyone recognizes that Putin has been openly attacked, which hints at vulnerability. Putin’s forces in Ukraine may question the sense of sacrificing their lives in what appears to be a futile war, especially when Russia has gained significant territorial advancements. Additionally, Putin, who already possesses a paranoid and irrational disposition, will likely make decisions driven by fear. Consequently, even if the coup fizzles out, it will undoubtedly impact Russia’s internal politics, Putin’s behavior, and the dynamics on the Ukrainian battlefield.
In the battle for control of a major nuclear power, there are no “heroes.” However, for those observing these events and seeking to unravel the strategic logic of coups and the potential trajectory of Putin’s regime, it is essential to monitor the loyalty of his followers.
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