Presidential elections are set to take place in Ecuador amidst a turbulent period for the country. President Guillermo Lasso called for early elections in response to impeachment proceedings against him due to allegations of embezzlement. Additionally, the assassination of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio has further contributed to the volatile atmosphere. These events have unfolded alongside the collaboration of foreign drug mafias with local gangs, resulting in an unprecedented surge of violence that has made security the primary concern for most voters. Here is a comprehensive overview of the upcoming vote.
The decision for early elections was made by President Lasso in May when he dissolved the opposition-led legislature, utilizing a constitutional measure that allows the president to rule by decree until new presidential and congressional elections can be held. The impeachment proceedings were subsequently halted following the dissolution of the congress. This move provided temporary stability for the politically turbulent country, allowing the president to bypass the deadlock in the legislature and address the public’s demand for new leadership in tackling rising street crime, drug-related violence, and gang activities.
Candidates can secure an outright victory by securing 50 percent of the total vote or 40 percent along with a 10 percentage point lead over the runner-up. If these thresholds are not met, the top two candidates will compete in a runoff election on October 15. The newly elected president will serve in office until May 2025. Notably, the voting process will incorporate blockchain technology to prevent voter fraud, marking a significant first in Latin America.
Fernando Villavicencio, a prominent legislator, former investigative journalist, and anti-corruption activist, was tragically assassinated during a campaign event, casting a shadow over the elections. Although he was not a frontrunner, his assassination sent shockwaves through Ecuador, given his pivotal role in exposing a bribery scandal that led to the conviction of a former president. Villavicencio had been an outspoken critic of the links between organized crime and the political establishment, making him a target. This brazen attack during broad daylight intensified existing concerns around drug-related violence in the election discourse.
The leading candidate in the polls is Luisa González, supported by the powerful party of former president Rafael Correa. Correa’s presidency saw significant economic progress and poverty reduction due to a commodities boom. However, allegations of corruption and his authoritarian approach deeply divided the nation. Voter nostalgia for the security and economic stability experienced during Correa’s tenure appears to be propelling Gonzalez’s candidacy. The other candidates, such as Otto Sonnenholzner and Yaku Pérez, face fierce competition for the second spot. Sonnenholzner, a former vice president, aims to position himself as a centrist newcomer but risks being associated with the policies of President Lasso. Pérez, an Indigenous activist, primarily focuses on environmental issues, which may not align with the main concerns of voters.
The assassination of Fernando Villavicencio has undoubtedly altered the course of the election. While security was already a paramount issue, it has now become the central theme. Paolo Moncagatta, a political analyst based in Quito, suggests that the elections will be largely determined by safety concerns. This shift in focus may benefit Jan Topic, a relatively unknown candidate who emphasizes a tough stance on crime, drawing inspiration from El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele and his successful approach against gangs. However, Topic’s tactics have raised human rights concerns. Unreliable polls indicate that Gonzalez’s lead is shrinking, with Topic and Sonnenholzner neck and neck for the second position.
The assassination has sparked allegations against Mr. Correa and his party, despite no concrete evidence linking them to the crime. Nevertheless, this fallout could negatively impact Gonzalez’s chances in the elections. Analysts caution that heightened safety concerns could either encourage voter turnout or discourage it, despite the mandatory voting law that imposes fines for absenteeism. Fear surrounding the election has further intensified with recent shootings near candidate events. These incidents could potentially shape the outcome of the elections.
The significance of this election lies in Ecuador’s transformation from a once peaceful country into a region dominated by narco-trafficking. While neighboring Colombia has reached a peace agreement, Ecuador has experienced a surge in violence and crime. Ecuadoreans hope that the new leadership elected will restore the peace and security they once enjoyed. The escalating crime rates have affected citizens’ daily lives, with many feeling unsafe in public spaces and even within enclosed environments. This election offers an opportunity for voters to select a candidate they believe can confront these challenges effectively.
To summarize, the upcoming presidential elections in Ecuador occur within a complex context marked by political turmoil, security concerns, and the assassination of an influential candidate. The outcome of these elections will significantly impact the direction of the country and its ability to address issues related to rising crime rates and drug-related violence.
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