Aviation experts have tentatively determined that the recent crash of a business jet, which was reportedly carrying Yevgeniy Prigozhin and other high-ranking members of the Wagner Group, was the result of a catastrophic structural failure. The evidence suggests that the crash was not caused by a simple mechanical issue or human error. However, it is still too early to definitively determine the cause of the crash due to limited evidence.
Unnamed US officials have provided preliminary findings indicating that an onboard explosion is a possibility, although there are currently no indications that the aircraft was shot down by a missile. All ten individuals on board the private Embraer jet, including Prigozhin, were killed in the crash.
Experts, such as former accident investigator Jeff Guzzetti, have analyzed video footage, wreckage photos, and flight tracking data to support the theory of an explosion on board the aircraft. Guzzetti states that the evidence shows clear signs of an explosive event, as the aircraft is seen falling uncontrollably rather than maintaining flight.
Sidney Dekker, a director at the Safety Science Innovation Lab, believes that mechanical failure is unlikely due to the wing appearing to be ripped from the main body. This type of separation can only occur through external factors such as a projectile impact or an internal explosion.
Speculation from individuals on Telegram channels suggests that holes in the wing of the plane could be the result of blast fragments or shrapnel. However, aviation analysts stress the difficulty of conclusively determining the cause based on these observations.
Furthermore, the crash scene and satellite imagery indicate that debris from the plane fell in separate areas, with the cockpit and tail sections separated by a considerable distance. This suggests that the fuselage tore apart midair during the plane’s descent.
Despite this analysis, experts, including CS “Raghu” Raghuraman, do not see evidence of a missile launch or missile impact. Tom Karako, the director of the Missile Defense Project, also notes the absence of a missile trail in the videos depicting the plane’s descent.
Guzzetti mentions that Russia has strong accident investigation capabilities and expects transparency in describing the findings and evidence of their investigation.
It is crucial to note that these conclusions are based on the currently available evidence, and a definitive cause for the crash has not been determined.
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