The junta in Niger appears to be dominating the situation, as its standoff with West African nations and the West continues. The regional bloc ECOWAS set a Sunday deadline for the generals to relinquish power and reinstate democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, but there is little indication that countries like Nigeria or Senegal are preparing for military intervention. Instead, the coup leaders organized a massive rally in the capital, Niamey, where a top general warned against threats to Niger’s progress, while supporters waved flags and chanted anti-France slogans.
Led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, head of Niger’s presidential guard, the junta removed Bazoum on July 26, suspended the country’s constitution, and arrested hundreds of potential political opponents. In response, ECOWAS imposed strict sanctions on Niger, including border closures, electricity import stoppages, and blocked financial transactions. Despite these measures, the new regime remains undeterred. Its leaders met with delegations from neighboring Mali and Burkina Faso, two countries controlled by Kremlin-friendly juntas, and rejected Western requests to relinquish control.
Victoria Nuland, acting deputy secretary of state, visited Niamey and had frank and difficult conversations with the junta officials. Her meetings did not yield much optimism, as their actions do not comply with the constitution, jeopardizing U.S. assistance to the country. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with the BBC, expressed concerns about Russia and its proxy mercenary organization Wagner taking advantage of the situation. Blinken noted that wherever the Wagner Group has operated, death, destruction, and exploitation have followed.
Niger was considered a safer and pro-Western country compared to Mali and Burkina Faso in the restive Sahel region. It aligned more with Washington and Paris and was an effective base for regional counterterrorism operations. However, the coup in Niger is primarily a result of internal political disputes within a fragile democracy. Nevertheless, the ongoing crisis has escalated into a geopolitical conflict. ECOWAS will hold a summit on Thursday to determine the way forward. For some members, Niger represents a red line that can still be reversed, after failed attempts to prevent juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea.
Backers of the coup have taken an anti-Western stance on social media, portraying Bazoum’s government and its regional allies as puppets of imperialist powers. They express anger over France’s troubled history and its military interventions in the region, as well as its economic dominance through the African franc currency. However, this sentiment is a result of widespread resentment for the colonial era, grievances over the presence of foreign troops, and disinformation campaigns.
France hoped that Niger would exemplify new partnerships with African nations on equal footing, investing in the Bazoum government. French troops collaborated with Nigerien forces in counter-militant operations. However, if Niger follows the path of Mali and Burkina Faso, it could further consolidate instability in the Sahel region under Russian influence. The Nigerien coup raises questions about the past decade of France’s counterterrorism operations, its relationships with regional militaries, and its colonial past. It should prompt French politicians to confront these issues uncomfortable as they may be.
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