Russian President Vladimir Putin finds himself in a precarious position following an armed rebellion, raising doubts about his grip on power. The rebellion, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the private military company Wagner Group, stopped just over 100 miles from Moscow, thanks to a deal struck between Putin and Prigozhin. However, this revolt poses a significant challenge to Putin’s leadership. Olga Lautman, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, believes that Putin will not recover from this blow and compares him to the emperor with no clothes.
Videos shared on Russian Telegram accounts show Prigozhin capturing a key city in southern Russia with minimal resistance and gaining support from some Russian soldiers and crowds. Putin has vowed that those involved in the rebellion will face justice, but even state-run media is questioning his decision to pardon Prigozhin. The deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko allows Prigozhin to relocate to Belarus, and charges of terrorism against him will be dropped. However, it remains uncertain how long this arrangement will hold.
According to Lautman, Putin’s decline began last year when Ukraine regained territory from Russian forces and critics like Prigozhin became emboldened to challenge the Russian military and government. The conflict in Ukraine has also seen anti-Kremlin revolutionary groups attacking towns in Russia, drone attacks in Moscow, and Prigozhin challenging the Kremlin’s authority. While the conflict has subsided for now, Lautman sees this deal as a temporary lull before more chaos ensues. She predicts that Prigozhin’s successful march on Moscow will inspire other revolutionaries in Russia.
Anna Arutunyan, a fellow with the Wilson Center, describes Putin as “catastrophically weakened” after the rebellion. She believes this incident signifies the beginning of the end for his leadership. Arutunyan points out that Putin’s inability to control competing elites, whom he has played off against each other in the past, is particularly troubling. Prigozhin, also known as “Putin’s chef” due to his close ties to the Kremlin, has a history of manipulating elections and committing human rights abuses through Wagner Group’s operations in Africa and the Middle East. However, their relationship changed dramatically when Wagner joined the war in Ukraine in 2022.
Signs of a revolt emerged when Prigozhin publicly criticized Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Gen. Valery Gerasimov for failing to provide enough supplies to his men. Tensions escalated further after Wagner captured the city of Bakhmut in Ukraine, with Prigozhin accusing Russian soldiers of planting explosives on an escape route and attacking his fighters. Prigozhin’s media blitz, exposing corruption among Moscow elites and insinuating a revolution, raised alarms within the Kremlin.
The decisive push came when the Kremlin tried to assert greater control over Wagner by forcing Prigozhin to sign a contract. The deadline for the contract was approaching when Prigozhin released a video accusing Moscow of lying about the war in Ukraine. He claimed that elites wanted Ukrainian territory for its resources, rather than protecting ethnic Russians. Russia’s Federal Security Service opened a criminal case against Prigozhin, who then announced his march into Russian territory. In a televised address, Putin condemned the “betrayal” without directly naming Prigozhin. With Putin’s allies remaining on the sidelines, Lukashenko stepped in to broker a deal, defusing the conflict with Wagner forces just 120 miles from Moscow.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described the situation as “extraordinary” and highlighted the irony of Russia defending its capital against mercenaries it had supported. Though Prigozhin claimed his intention was not to overthrow Putin but to protest against injustice and expose Russia’s weak security, some analysts believe his move was an act of desperation after heavy losses in Bakhmut.
While Putin may have suffered a severe blow, he managed to prevent a bloody confrontation on the outskirts of Moscow. However, he has yet to fulfill Prigozhin’s demands to remove Shoigu and Gerasimov from power. Prigozhin remains influential as a populist figure and asserts his control over most of his Wagner forces. Some speculate that Putin made a deal with Prigozhin out of concern about his influence, fearing that the National Guard might side with Prigozhin in a civil war scenario. However, this episode underscores the challenges Putin faces in controlling competing elites in Russia.
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