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Venezuelans are casting ballots on Sunday in a referendum backed by President Nicolas Maduro’s administration regarding a potentially oil-rich territory at the center of a long-standing border dispute with Guyana. The referendum includes a question about rejecting International Court of Justice (ICJ) jurisdiction to decide the ownership of the territory around the Esequibo river. Analysts consider the referendum an exhibition of Maduro’s authority and an appraisal of public backing for his government before the next presidential election in 2024, as the issue could take years for the court to resolve. Additionally, the territorial conflict is a challenge to Guyana despite the court order, it has raised doubts and uneasiness within the country. The referendum would have no minimum number of votes for its approval.
Venezuela’s claim over the 160,000 square km (61,776 square mile) region has been amplified in recent years after the discovery of potentially lucrative offshore oil and gas reserves. Maduro’s government is seeking to convey a message of supremacy to Guyana and aims to convince its citizens to ratify the proposal.
As voting centers open across the nation, political analysts anticipate voters to support the proposal. However, some polls show low turnout and a lack of opposition campaigning. It is a delicate matter for Venezuela and for Guyana, with the situation causing anxiety in Guyana and leading Brazil to bolster its defenses along the border.
Reinforcing fears of heightened tension, a statement from central University of Venezuela politics professor Ricardo Sucre suggested that the end goal of the Maduro government is to present a strong message to Guyana, showing its commitment to the 1966 bilateral agreement. The referendum’s passing could result in the postponement of the presidential election, with the potential for Maduro to remain in power if Venezuelans do not unite and participate in the 2024 election. The outcome of the referendum could bring clarity to the disputed territory and present an opportunity for change.
