Villagers in southern Lebanon are moving north due to fears of a full-scale war. Many schools are closed, and Israel has instructed its citizens to vacate 28 towns along the border with Lebanon. The Israeli army has been engaging in daily fire exchanges with Hezbollah, Lebanon’s Shia political and paramilitary group, since October 7, resulting in casualties on both sides.
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has expressed the need to respond to the situation in Gaza, while Iran’s foreign minister, Amir Abdollahian, has warned of a potential preemptive strike by Iran’s allies against Israel. Surprisingly, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah who usually gives fiery speeches and interviews, has remained silent even 12 days after the Hamas attack on Israel.
This silence from Nasrallah can only mean one thing: Hezbollah is waiting for Iran to assess its options and potential outcomes. Hezbollah, being Lebanon’s most valuable asset and a key line of defense, is crucial for Iran’s regime survival. The recent Israeli strikes on Gaza and the resulting casualties will heavily influence Iran and Hezbollah’s decision-making process for their next moves.
Although Washington has stated that it has no direct evidence linking Tehran to the Hamas attack, there is a long-standing relationship between the Palestinian group and the Iranian regime. Tehran supplies Hamas with weapons and funds, and there are reports suggesting that Hezbollah has provided training. General Esmail Ghaani, the head of Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force, has been coordinating Iran’s proxies, and Nasrallah has frequently talked about the unification of fronts this year.
Hezbollah’s silence can also be attributed to the unexpectedly high death toll among Israeli forces. Nasrallah may be cautious and observing how far the Israeli army will go into Gaza, and whether Hamas will face an existential threat that requires Hezbollah’s response. Iran would likely prefer sacrificing Hamas rather than wasting Hezbollah unless Iran itself is directly threatened.
By keeping Israel on edge along its northern border, Hezbollah is already indirectly aiding Hamas, but within the established rules of engagement after the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war. Both sides understand this script, but there is a significant risk of miscalculation. Israeli officials are currently emphasizing their desire to avoid a war with Lebanon while simultaneously threatening to destroy the country if Hezbollah goes too far. Hezbollah has released statements asserting that it is responding to enemy fire, simultaneously claiming that the “skirmishes” are only a “warning.”
In 2006, Hezbollah experienced the consequences of intervening in a war to support Hamas. After the targeted killing of a Palestinian leader and the kidnapping of an Israeli conscript by Hamas, the Israeli army entered northern Gaza, resulting in a war that lasted several weeks. As a show of support, Hezbollah raided northern Israel and kidnapped two Israeli soldiers, leading to the devastation of Lebanon.
However, much has changed since then. With Iran’s assistance, Hezbollah’s capabilities have significantly increased, with an estimated 60,000 fighters and a stockpile of 150,000 missiles, including precision-guided ones. While Israel can still cause significant damage to Lebanon, Hezbollah can now inflict devastating damage deep into Israel. This capability will be a factor in Israel’s planning for a ground war in Gaza.
Hezbollah’s role in the region has also expanded, becoming a regional paramilitary group with a presence in Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. Israel has conducted regular airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian assets in Syria. The recent strikes on Damascus and Aleppo airports raise the possibility of a Syrian front against Israel with the involvement of Hezbollah. However, retaliation from Israel would primarily target Syria, which is still at war, has a president indebted to Tehran, and has limited say in whether or how he participates.
Hezbollah’s standing domestically and regionally has changed as well. The group has lost popularity in the Arab world, and Lebanon has been suffering from an economic crisis and the aftermath of the Beirut port explosion in 2020. Many Lebanese blame Hezbollah for these issues. Over the past two years, there have been altercations and clashes between Hezbollah and other Lebanese communities. While several thousand of Hezbollah’s core supporters responded to Hamas’ call for demonstrations, the overall response was lukewarm.
However, the situation can quickly change, with a shift towards more vocal expressions of support for Palestinians or anger towards the United States. After the al-Ahli hospital in Gaza was hit, hundreds of protesters drove from the southern suburbs to the U.S. embassy on the northern outskirts of Beirut, setting a nearby building on fire.
Tehran…
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