Predicting War: A Perplexing Task
Foretelling the course of war is always a risky endeavor. Even the most confident pundits and politicians often include a caveat of uncertainty in their predictions. However, it is notable how Western governments, commentators, and leaders have consistently failed to accurately gauge the trajectory and outcomes of wars in recent decades.
In 1990, numerous analysts and journalists anticipated a brutal conflict and ensuing quagmire when battle-hardened Iraqi troops faced outnumbered and supposedly weaker American forces in the deserts of Kuwait and Iraq. Yet, the Gulf War proved to be a swift campaign where friendly fire and accidents caused as much damage to the US Army as enemy fire. The Iraqis were outmatched, outmaneuvered, and outnumbered by their adversaries.
American and European planners similarly overestimated their opponents during the Balkan conflicts in the 1990s. Inaccurate references to German divisions pinned down by Tito’s partisans during World War II led defense planners and commentators to believe that intervening in Bosnia would be a much tougher endeavor. However, this turned out to be untrue.
Such misjudgments have persisted throughout the years. For four years following the start of the Iraq War in 2003, the US floundered, believing they were only combating a diminishing number of insurgents who could easily be defeated by the newly-formed Iraqi army. It wasn’t until General David Petraeus took a more realistic view and implemented a new strategy that the situation improved.
Persistent and unwarranted pessimism about reversing the situation in Afghanistan was also prevalent in Congress. Even a future US president, then a freshman senator from Illinois, believed the war to be unwinnable, only to be proven wrong when Petraeus and his brigades turned the tide. On the other hand, American administrations misjudged the Taliban’s resurgence after a partial withdrawal from Iraq a decade earlier, and once again, in 2021, were shocked by the rapid collapse of the Afghan regime following their final withdrawal.
Similarly, prominent analysts projected a Russian blitzkrieg against Ukraine in February 2022, only to be proven wrong as the invader proved less competent than anticipated, and Ukrainian defenders displayed unexpected effectiveness. Currently, some military leaks and self-proclaimed experts criticize the Ukrainian counteroffensive for lacking the maneuvering elements seen in historic military breakthroughs.
Why have these misjudgments been so common? Both the left and right of the political spectrum, as well as military personnel, intelligence officials, journalists, and commentators, have been susceptible to this phenomenon. The explanations vary depending on the specific cases.
The US misjudgments in Iraq and Afghanistan were partly a result of the military’s reluctance to engage in counterinsurgency after the Vietnam War. This led to a stop in strategic thinking about such operations. The lack of fresh military experiences among political, scholarly, and journalistic circles further contributed to a skewed understanding of armed conflicts.
The misjudgments in Ukraine came from different sources, including a narrow focus on military capabilities and confusion between doctrine and actual execution of operations. Additionally, there was an enduring bias against allied countries, assuming they were corrupt, incompetent, and cowardly. Such assumptions proved grossly incorrect in the case of Ukraine.
Furthermore, the decline in the study of military history exacerbates these misjudgments. Modern universities have shifted toward “security studies” that prioritize topics like arms control and deterrence theory, rather than the comprehensive study of warfare. This lack of direct knowledge of military dynamics and history among scholars, journalists, and officials has hindered their ability to accurately predict war outcomes.
To counteract these misjudgments, a stronger emphasis on military history is needed. It is essential to read and understand a wide range of wars, both broadly and in-depth, to develop an instinct for what can be anticipated in warfare. Additionally, it is crucial for individuals and institutions to critically evaluate and learn from their mistakes. This includes reevaluating the credibility of those who have consistently made erroneous predictions.
Ultimately, the conviction that real wars will never reach Western countries must be dispelled. Leaders should be honest with the public about the need for increased defense spending, and restrictions on certain weapons for humanitarian reasons should be reconsidered, as they may become necessary in future conflicts.
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