Ever since the counteroffensive against Russian forces in Ukraine began, the frequency of drone attacks by Ukraine on Russia has increased significantly. The purpose of these attacks, according to U.S. officials, is to demonstrate to the Ukrainian public that Kyiv is capable of fighting back against the entrenched Russian troops. In recent weeks, Ukrainian drones have targeted Moscow, leading to the temporary shutdown of airports in the capital. The Russian Ministry of Defense also confirmed that Ukraine launched 42 drones at the occupied Crimean Peninsula and fired a missile near Moscow, making it one of the largest aerial assaults on Russian-held territory since the start of the war.
Most of these strikes, carried out using Ukrainian-made drones, have not caused significant damage to Russia’s military power, according to U.S. officials. Additionally, no Russians have been killed in the attacks on Moscow, as they mostly occurred early in the day to minimize damage and disruption. The timing of these strikes may be to avoid Russia’s air defenses or for operational security purposes, but it has also prevented Russia from escalating its attacks in response.
Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence service, expressed that the purpose of these attacks is to make Russian elites and ordinary citizens aware that the war is no longer limited to Ukraine’s territory, but has reached Moscow. However, U.S. officials believe that the primary audience for these strikes is the Ukrainian population and troops. The attacks aim to boost their morale in the face of slow progress against Russia’s fortified defenses, heavy losses in equipment and troops, and a lack of tangible achievements on the battlefield.
While Ukraine hopes that intensified attacks will force Russia to reconsider its own devastating attacks on Ukraine, experts suggest that the drone strikes may have strengthened anti-Ukraine sentiment in Russian border regions and increased support for President Vladimir V. Putin. Nevertheless, there are signs of doubt about Putin’s strength among wealthy elites after the rebellion by the mercenary Wagner group, and the Ukrainian drone strikes may contribute to these doubts.
It remains uncertain which operatives within the Ukrainian military are responsible for the attacks. President Volodymyr Zelensky has not explicitly mentioned the strikes but has stated that the war is reaching Russian territory. The strikes have been carried out using a mix of short- and long-range drones, with long-range drones launched from Ukraine and short-range ones likely operated by pro-Ukrainian sympathizers or operatives who have crossed the border. The United States believes that these attacks were ordered and loosely directed by elements within the Ukrainian government, although they did not involve American equipment.
Despite their limited impact, U.S. officials expect Ukraine to continue striking Russia as it sends a strong message that Kyiv is not only defending its territory but also capable of taking the fight to Russia. Previously, there were concerns that Ukrainian strikes on Moscow could lead to escalatory actions by Russia, but so far, these strikes have been calculated and have not provoked drastic escalation.
While Russian state-run media has attempted to downplay the effectiveness of the Ukrainian strikes by emphasizing the military’s ability to shoot down drones, the Russian propaganda machine has been activated in response to the drone attacks. The impact on Russian public opinion is still uncertain, but the population appears to be increasingly dissatisfied with the military leadership in Moscow. The rebellion by the Wagner group and the drone strikes may have raised doubts among Moscow’s elites about the strength of the Russian government.
It is important to note that, in comparison, Russia has executed a much larger and more lethal campaign of attacks on Ukraine, targeting civilian infrastructure such as apartment buildings and power stations. These attacks, carried out with Iranian drones and Russian cruise missiles, are designed to weaken the resolve of Ukrainians to resist the invasion. However, they have had limited impact on Ukraine’s military capabilities and its determination to fight back.
Overall, the drone strikes by Ukraine on Russia seek to convey a message of resilience and retaliation to the Ukrainian public and troops. Despite the limited damage inflicted, these attacks serve as a reminder that Ukraine is not solely on the defensive but is willing to take the fight to Russia.
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