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The writer, a senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank, has extensive experience in Ukraine during Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Ukrainian forces have been engaging in an offensive for two months, aiming to break through Russian defense lines and liberate the occupied territories. Progress has been slow but steady. The question now is whether the Ukrainians can push the Russian forces to their breaking point.
After failed attempts during the spring offensive, the Russian military retreated to defensive positions spanning approximately 45km across the southern front from Zaporizhzhia through Donetsk. These positions are designed to prevent Ukrainian troops from advancing toward the strategically important city of Melitopol. Named the Surovikin Line after a Russian general, it consists of three lines of fortified trenches, fortified with minefields, anti-tank ditches, tank traps, and wire entanglements. Russian fighting positions are further reinforced with anti-tank and anti-personnel mines.
Since the start of the offensive in early June, Moscow has employed new tactics. Russian forces allow Ukrainians to enter the minefields and then aggressively counterattack, often using tanks and anti-tank guided weapons. Once Ukrainian vehicles are disabled, the Russians deploy mortars and artillery against the infantry. If Ukrainian forces manage to cross the minefields and reach the trenches, the Russians often abandon their positions and detonate prepositioned charges to eliminate the initial wave of attackers.
Responding to heavy casualties caused by explosive attempts to breach the minefields, Kyiv has adjusted its tactics by infiltrating Russian positions to confuse defenders and launching flank attacks before attempting breaches. Although this approach reduces Ukrainian losses, it requires meticulous planning and reconnaissance, resulting in a slow process. The Ukrainians fight for a mere 700m at a time, allowing their opponents to regroup. Speeding up the process would lead to unacceptable rates of equipment loss. The key for the Ukrainians is to manage their equipment, particularly vehicles, to exploit any successful breach.
In addition to assaulting Russian positions, Kyiv has been using precision missiles supplied by its allies to target and destroy counter-battery radar since early June. Without this radar, Moscow has struggled to locate Ukrainian artillery, while Ukrainian forces have become adept at locating Russian guns and neutralizing them with precision shells.
The systematic erosion of Russian artillery marks a turning point in the war. Ukrainian howitzers can now sustain fire on Russian positions, despite the continued destruction of Ukrainian vehicles in the minefields. As a result, Ukrainian troops are achieving success in capturing Russian positions, even when their vehicles are exposed in the open.
In response, Moscow has had to adopt a more aggressive stance with its armored vehicles. This strategy has inflicted significant casualties on Ukrainians but has also made Russian vehicles vulnerable. Ukrainian drones surveil the battlespace during the day, providing valuable intelligence on targets, while repurposed agricultural drones armed with rocket-propelled grenades hunt for Russian armor at night.
The attrition of critical equipment is crucial for Kyiv both tactically and operationally. Ukraine has been effectively using Storm Shadow cruise missiles provided by the UK to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and bridges behind Russian lines. Combined with the destruction of artillery, armor, radars, and supply lines, Moscow’s infantry is left with dwindling support. However, Russian units continue to put up a strong fight, and Ukraine’s equipment losses remain high. Ukrainian forces are particularly challenged by persistent Russian attack helicopters stationed 8km to 10km from the front, operating at low altitudes and firing anti-tank missiles at Ukrainian vehicles.
The key question is which side can sustain the current rate of attrition. Russia’s 58th Combined Arms Army on the southern front has borne the brunt of the fighting, with approximately one-fourth of the force occupying the frontlines at any given time. The Russians have had to rotate their troops and have few reserves. Meanwhile, Ukraine has reinforced the fight with additional units from the 10th Corps, maintaining the pressure on Russian forces. At some point, Russia’s infantry may be spread too thin, lacking sufficient artillery and armored support, leading to a potential collapse of the defense. The dry weather will allow Ukraine to continue its push until November, which will be a critical point determining progress based on each side’s preparations for winter fighting.
The stakes are high for Kyiv. A successful breakthrough would result in the liberation of significant territory and force Russia to deploy new units to Ukraine before they have completed their training. Conversely, if Ukraine fails to breach the Surovikin Line, Russia can hold back new units, train and prepare them, and regain the initiative. In either scenario, ongoing international assistance will be crucial for Kyiv. By autumn, the trajectory of the conflict will become apparent.
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