Ukraine escalates efforts in unlikely bid for NATO membership

Ukrainian officials are actively advocating for full NATO membership, putting pressure on the US and its allies to acknowledge their success in receiving F-16 fighter jets and other heavy artillery. While achieving NATO membership is a long shot and could take years, Ukrainian officials are determined to secure concrete commitments at the upcoming summit in Vilnius, Lithuania.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need for progress towards NATO membership during a recent address to the nation, stating that “the time for integration and security certainty has obviously come.” However, critics and supporters alike have pointed out a major hurdle – a prospective state cannot be engaged in active conflict. This concern was raised by Mary Beth Long, a former Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs, who questioned the feasibility of bringing a country under invasion into NATO.

Ukrainian officials are frustrated with the lack of specificity in NATO’s statements, with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal stating in an interview with The Hill that they expect more concrete commitments rather than just hearing that “the doors of NATO remain open for Ukraine.” Ukrainian officials and their supporters believe that NATO can take practical steps to establish security guarantees for Ukraine without immediately granting full membership. They argue that strong rhetoric and clear commitments are essential in countering Russian President Vladimir Putin.

While Baltic states like Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia have been vocal in supporting Ukraine’s immediate inclusion in NATO, other European leaders are more cautious. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, for example, emphasized the need to focus on the existing path laid out in the 2008 Bucharest declaration, which acknowledged Ukraine’s aspiration to join the alliance and outlined a Membership Action Plan (MAP) for its accession. However, Ukrainian officials consider the Bucharest declaration to be worthless.

Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO Secretary-General, suggested an action plan co-authored with Zelensky’s senior adviser, Andriy Yermak, to establish tangible security guarantees for Ukraine while addressing concerns about provoking Putin. However, Rasmussen believes that achieving consensus among all 31 NATO members on such a proposal in Vilnius is unlikely.

The lack of consensus extends to the US Congress. While some lawmakers are calling for Biden to offer Ukraine a clear pathway to membership and robust security commitments at the summit, others, like Senator Thom Tillis, believe there is still much work to be done to determine the right path for Ukraine’s NATO integration. Senator Tillis introduced a resolution with Senator Jeanne Shaheen emphasizing US support for Ukraine’s fight for freedom, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, without explicitly calling for NATO accession or security guarantees.

Additionally, the alliance faces hurdles regarding Sweden’s accession due to stonewalling by Turkey and Hungary. Hungary has refused to ratify Sweden’s accession in response to perceived insults, while Turkey has expressed concerns about Kurdish militant groups. The Biden administration is offering a weapons package as an incentive for Turkey to allow Sweden’s accession.

In summary, Ukrainian officials are relentlessly pushing for NATO membership, seeking concrete commitments at the upcoming summit in Vilnius. However, obstacles such as Ukraine’s ongoing conflict and the lack of consensus among NATO members pose significant challenges. Nonetheless, Ukrainian officials and their supporters believe that practical steps can be taken by NATO without immediate full membership.

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