UK speculates potential destabilization of Wagner due to presumed death of Prigozhin

The British Defense Ministry has announced that the presumed death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Wagner Group, is expected to have a destabilizing impact on the mercenary fighting company. In an intelligence update, British officials stated that Prigozhin likely died in a plane crash in Russia, and his demise would profoundly affect the Wagner Group. The update further highlighted Prigozhin’s personal attributes, such as hyper-activity, audacity, a drive for results, and extreme brutality, which were significant factors contributing to Wagner’s success and are unlikely to be matched by any successor.

The plane crash is also believed to have claimed the life of Dmitry Utkin, Wagner’s co-founder and field commander, who played a prominent leadership role within the organization. With the absence of these two influential individuals, Wagner may either be absorbed into Russia’s military, merge with other mercenary companies, or gradually diminish over time. Additionally, the demise of Wagner’s top commanders jeopardizes the group’s global operations, particularly in Africa, where it has exploited resources in developing countries.

It remains unclear how Wagner fighters plan to recover in the short term. However, Wagner-affiliated accounts on Telegram have expressed that they are awaiting further information and statements from top officers regarding the next steps. After an unsuccessful rebellion against Russian President Vladimir Putin in June, many Wagner fighters relocated to Belarus as part of a deal orchestrated by Prigozhin to evade terrorism charges.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has affirmed that Wagner fighters are not leaving his country, as reported by the Russian state-run media outlet RIA Novosti. Lukashenko stated that up to 10,000 Wagner fighters will remain in Belarus for as long as necessary. Prigozhin and Utkin were listed as passengers on a business jet that crashed approximately 100 miles from Moscow on Wednesday. However, no other confirmations of their deaths have been made, and Russian officials are still investigating the crash.

The Pentagon did not comment on the cause of the crash but stated that U.S. officials estimate Prigozhin likely died. The circumstances surrounding the crash and the fate of the other passengers remain uncertain.