Trump leads Biden in 2024 election matchup for the first time in months, poll reveals
A new poll conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov has found that former President Donald Trump leads President Biden 44% to 42% in a head-to-head 2024 election matchup. This is the first time in months that Trump has held the lead over Biden. The poll, which surveyed 1,584 U.S. adults from Nov. 9 to 13, also shows growing concerns over Biden’s age and competence. Today, a full 54% of Americans say that Biden no longer has the competence to carry out the job of president, up from 41% in June 2020 and 49% in February of this year. Only 31% of Americans still think Biden is competent, down from 46% in August 2021. Additionally, worries over the president’s health and mental acuity are on the rise, with 64% now saying they are somewhat concerned or very concerned.
Despite Trump being only 3.5 years younger than Biden, more Americans say he is “fit to be president” (38%) than say the same about Biden (24%). As a result, 80% now say Biden’s age is at least a small problem, and 55% say it’s a large problem. Biden’s supporters have pointed to his busy schedule and significant list of accomplishments to counter concerns about his age, but polls reveal that this argument hasn’t resonated with the public. Meanwhile, Americans have heard far more about Biden stumbling at public events, making verbal gaffes, and falling asleep at public events than about his legislative achievements.
The split-screen with Trump is telling here. Despite being the second-oldest president in U.S. history, Trump’s worries about competence or age haven’t risen since 2020. Currently, 43% of Americans say Trump has the competence to carry out the job of president, and less than half (44%) say they are concerned about his health and mental acuity. In contrast, just 39% of Americans think Biden has accomplished a lot as the president, 15 points lower than Trump’s rating on the same question.
The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,584 U.S. adults interviewed online from Nov. 9 to 13, 2023. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. The margin of error is approximately 2.8%.