In my quest for insight into the current state of Tory morale, I attended the Spectator magazine’s July party, which is considered the highlight of the Conservative summer calendar. This event boasts the greatest concentration of senior Tories per square meter than anywhere else. I took the opportunity to gather opinions about their chances of holding onto power in the upcoming general election. A former cabinet minister sipped champagne before responding, “Obviously, we will be out. The question is whether it will be for five years or 10.” The source of their despondency is the fact that Labour is currently leading in the opinion polls by about 20 points. This unpopularity is likely to be further confirmed by the Conservative Party’s poor showing in the upcoming byelections. Additionally, the potential of facing a fourth byelection looms after the standards committee’s damning verdict on Chris Pincher. There could be a fifth byelection if Nadine Dorries follows through with her threat to quit parliament because she didn’t receive a peerage. While these factors contribute to the Tories’ grim outlook, history has shown that trailing in the polls and suffering byelection losses does not necessarily result in defeat in the subsequent general election. What truly crushes Tory spirits is their lack of reasons to believe in a revival of their fortunes in the remaining time. Several months ago, Isaac Levido, the Tory party’s chief electoral strategist, advised Conservative MPs that there was a “narrow path to victory” if they rallied behind Rishi Sunak and allowed the prime minister the opportunity to appear more competent and trustworthy. However, this strategy was based on the assumption that the Tory party can maintain discipline, the squeeze on living standards will ease by 2024, and the prime minister will fulfill his promises. Sunak has been backtracking on the infamous “quintet of pledges” I discussed last week, and even if those promises are kept, they may not provide much benefit. The outlook suggests that the harsh economic conditions and the timing of the election are fundamentally misaligned for the Tories. While some Tories still hold out hope for a victory if various factors align in their favor and if Labour encounters setbacks, the majority have resigned themselves to the inevitability of defeat. The impending doom is further magnified by the fact that many traditional Tory allies in the City, business, and media are preparing for a Labour government. There has been speculation about Rupert Murdoch wanting to establish closer ties with Keir Starmer, as evidenced by his newspapers featuring two opinion pieces by the Labour leader in a single week. The fact that Murdoch’s newspapers, which have historically supported the Tories, are promoting the views of Labour’s leader is a significant blow to Tory morale. Rishi Sunak is well aware of the negative perception surrounding his government, but he appears unable to dispel it. Upon assuming leadership, there was speculation that he would distinguish himself from the chaos and dishonesty of his predecessor by representing himself as a “fresh start” and a “clean break.” However, Sunak missed the opportunity to do so when the former prime minister was found guilty of lying to parliament. This failure to reset public opinion has further eroded trust in the Tory party. The Conservatives increasingly exhibit signs of a party that has given up. Many MPs, particularly younger ones, are opting not to stand for parliament again, indicating a sense of resignation rather than resilience. There are others who plan to stand but have little expectation of retaining their seats. They do so because retiring voluntarily does not provide the same financial benefits as being ejected by voters. Some MPs who believe they have a chance of survival are dedicating more time to their constituencies in an effort to improve their odds, but history suggests that being known as a diligent servant of the constituency does not necessarily guarantee electoral success. If the public has turned against the government, loyal and talented Conservative MPs will likely be swept away in the swing. Adding to the Tories’ loss of motivation is the indifference among their own MPs toward Sunak’s calls for unity. Whenever he tries to rally his party around a particular message, there always seems to be distracting and divisive noise from one of the Tory factions. Recently, a group of MPs calling themselves the “New Conservatives” garnered attention by suggesting curbing immigration by stopping work visas for foreign workers in care homes. Such a policy would worsen the crises in the care sector and the NHS. It is clear that the government will not adopt such a self-destructive strategy, suggesting that these factions are positioning themselves for the post-defeat era, potentially dragging the Conservatives toward new ideologies while in opposition. Some populist right factions even give the impression of welcoming their party’s loss of power. Tories have been heard saying that “it will do us good to have a spell in opposition,” believing that it will provide an opportunity for revival. This sentiment is reminiscent of what Labour supporters said prior to the 2010 election. However, they have since learned to be cautious about what they wish for during their 13-year stint in opposition. The growing anticipation of defeat is coupled with a decline in faith in Rishi Sunak. He has lost favor among voters and is now also losing support among his own party members, as indicated by the negative ratings he and other cabinet members have received in the latest survey of Tory activists. Despite these challenges, Sunak appears to be safe in his position for now. There was no talk of a revolt against him at the Spectator party. While Tory MPs may be fond of plotting, they can recognize how ridiculous it would be to change the prime minister three times in one parliament. Furthermore, there doesn’t seem to be a viable alternative candidate to lead the party.
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