Boris Johnson made history in 2019 by winning a majority of working-class votes for the Conservatives for the first time. However, current predictions suggest that Keir Starmer will reverse Labour’s decline among Britain’s working class in the next election. This is significant not only because Labour was founded by and for Britain’s workers, but also because their support is crucial for achieving a parliamentary majority.
Several developed democracies are experiencing a centre-left revival after the challenges faced by such parties following the 2008 financial crisis. Prof Oliver Heath’s new research for the Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) reveals that winning centre-left parties are not solely reliant on middle to higher-level earners; working-class votes remain essential to their electoral coalitions.
It is remarkable how quickly support for the Conservatives has waned, considering the significance of working-class voters choosing them in the first place. Working-class voters began shifting away from Labour over 20 years ago, but it was the combination of Brexit, Johnson, and Jeremy Corbyn that ultimately enabled the Tories to secure the majority of working-class votes. Yet a recent YouGov poll for the centre-left think tank PPI shows that only 44% of working-class voters who supported the Conservatives in 2019 plan to do so again. The Conservatives have missed a historic opportunity to reshape the British electorate and preserve the substantial majority they gained.
However, working-class voters are not flocking to Labour either, at least not yet. Labour’s lead among this group is narrower, and many are undecided. The lack of trust in politicians is unsurprising, considering the broken promises and disrespect shown to them by the Conservatives. Behind the declining support for the Tories among working-class voters lies the belief that there is a lack of fairness and a distrust of any political party’s ability to deliver it.
Working-class voters feel that they are receiving fewer rewards for their hard work compared to a decade ago, and they believe that young people today will be worse off than their parents’ generation. They cite rising costs in energy, food, and housing, along with a lack of good job opportunities. While immigration is occasionally mentioned, the vast majority point to wages and higher costs, particularly housing relative to wages, as the reasons for their pessimism about the future.
Tory losses among working-class voters are driven by economic insecurity, but the issue runs deeper than the current cost of living crisis. There is a prevailing belief that everything will continue to worsen, including inflation, the cost of living, NHS waiting lists, climate change, personal finances, the number of people arriving in small boats, national debt, and the country’s financial situation. This sense of uncertainty permeates people’s economic, cultural, and social lives.
Those intending to vote Labour are even more pessimistic about the future compared to those likely to vote Conservative. While fewer people feel optimistic and are drawn to the Tories, this presents a real challenge for Starmer’s Labour to transform pessimism into hope for a better future with a change of government.
The central mission for today’s centre-left is to restore and inspire hope. We must champion a new political agenda that reestablishes trust with voters and assures them that hard work leads to progress in life. We understand that this will not occur by accident but requires deliberate reforms to align the economy and society with the interests of working people.
A crucial starting point is a determined focus on increasing wages for those with low to middle incomes. Our program should prioritize people’s security as the foundation for better prospects in the future. This entails stabilizing the costs and availability of essential goods, addressing crime, restoring order at the national borders, and ending the perception of a “double standard” that undermined the sense of fairness during the Covid lockdowns. By investing in housing opportunities for the next generation and reforming the education system to drive progress, we can begin to instill hope for better opportunities ahead.
There is more work to be done to convince Britain’s working-class voters to support Labour in the next election. Considering the empty promises and deceptive tactics employed by the Tories, their skepticism is understandable. However, if they do choose Labour, they deserve a government committed to meaningful reforms that prioritize their interests and fundamentally improve the UK.
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