In the midst of a devastating war, one particular event stands out for its immense impact: the destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam in southern Ukraine. This dam played a crucial role in irrigating farmland that was considered the breadbasket of Europe, so its collapse puts global food supplies for millions of people at risk and threatens fragile ecosystems for years to come.
The dam bore visible scars from the conflicts leading up to its breach. Ukrainian strikes had already damaged a portion of the roadway over the dam, and retreating Russian troops later blew up another section. Just before the collapse, satellite images showed uncontrolled water flow over some of the gates.
While Russia has denied responsibility and claimed that the dam simply fell victim to accumulated damage, extensive evidence points to a different explanation. Detailed analysis, including original engineering plans and interviews with experts in dam failures, indicates that the collapse was not accidental. The catastrophic failure of the dam’s concrete foundation was highly unlikely to occur naturally.
Considering the satellite and seismic data that detected explosions in the area, the most likely cause of the collapse was an explosive charge placed in the maintenance passageway within the core of the dam. Two American engineers, one specializing in explosives and a Ukrainian engineer familiar with the dam’s operations, support this theory. According to Michael W. West, a retired geotechnical engineer and expert in dam safety, the gallery within the dam is an ideal location for such an explosive charge if the objective is to destroy the dam itself.
While a thorough examination after the reservoir drains is necessary to determine the precise events leading to the destruction, engineers find it unlikely that poor design or substandard concrete contributed to the collapse. Ihor Strelets, a former deputy head of water resources for the Dnipro River, confirms that the dam’s foundation was designed to withstand external attacks. Strelets believes that an explosion within the gallery caused the initial destruction, leading to further damage from the force of the water.
Residents in the vicinity of the dam reported hearing explosions and strange rumblings in the predawn hours of June 6. They quickly realized that something was different, as the rush of water was immediate. While flooding took longer to reach downstream areas, it eventually engulfed homes and displaced countless people. The death toll remains uncertain and is expected to rise.
The Kakhovka dam presented an attractive target for an attack due to the relatively vulnerable sluice gates and roadway. However, most of the dam’s mass was concealed underwater. Diagrams and descriptions provided by experts reveal a colossal concrete structure that played a crucial role in retaining water. Evidence shows damage to the roadway and some sluice gates before the breach, but engineers believe that the collapse was more likely related to the explosions detected by seismic sensors and an infrared signal indicating heat from an explosion.
Seismic data recorded in Romania and Ukraine pointed to an explosion, rather than an independent dam collapse, occurring at around 2:35 a.m. and 2:54 a.m. Ukraine time. The precise location of the blasts remains uncertain, but U.S. officials suggest that one or more charges placed inside the dam, most likely by Russian operatives, caused the explosion shortly before the collapse.
Experts, including Gregory B. Baecher from the University of Maryland and Nick Glumac from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, believe that the scale of the breach and the failure of the concrete barrier indicate the use of explosives deep within the structure. Such an explosive force would completely destroy the concrete.
The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam has significant implications for food supplies and ecosystems. As investigations continue, it is crucial to understand the true cause of the collapse to prevent similar incidents in the future.
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