In preparation for its invasion of Ukraine, Russia amassed over 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s border and presented NATO with a treaty demanding the cessation of military activity in Ukraine and the removal of NATO forces from Eastern Europe. This treaty was merely a pretext for war as Russian President Vladimir Putin had already made the decision to invade Ukraine. Despite this, the West responded to Russia’s aggression by increasing military support for Ukraine, but the United States has not gone as far as providing long-range missiles capable of hitting Russia.
While Joe Biden’s reasoning for not providing Ukraine with such missiles is seen as perceptive by many analysts, Ukrainians are frustrated by Washington’s hesitation. Without superior weapons, the Ukrainian military will struggle to defeat their much larger adversary. The United States Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) is a formidable weapon that could drastically improve Ukraine’s position in the conflict. ATACMS can hit most of Russia’s command posts and weapons depots up to 186 miles away. Additionally, they could be used to sever the land bridge to Crimea, which could weaken Moscow’s forces in southern Ukraine and help pave the way for Ukraine to take back the peninsula.
However, the United States is hesitant to provide ATACMS as attacking Crimea could be seen as crossing a red line for the Kremlin. Although Washington could provide the missiles on the condition that Ukraine not use them to hit the peninsula, guaranteeing that the missiles would not cross Moscow’s trip wires is impossible. The risk of escalation is real, and Moscow could react in many ways without resorting to nuclear weapons, such as launching cyberattacks on NATO states or carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities. Moscow views itself as fighting NATO and not just Ukraine, and the odds of Russia attacking NATO are not outlandish.
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